In the long run a planned economy is a huge disadvantage, the Soviets and now the the CCP are prime examples. For instance, the CCP is also sitting on a bunch of practically empty metropolises, paired with a property bubble and a falling population (all of which are exist to their meddling).
"Planning" has a very different meaning when referring to what France did, what the USSR did, and what China is doing. Remains to be seen if China is at a disadvantage.
> The ADA isn't some surprise gotcha that crept up on any of these people
The ADA was written in an extremely non-specific way that allows unelected bureaucrats to reinterpret it every so often. To be honest, the US would probably have a more accessible society if the law was better written.
That's a problem with executive political appointees more so than the unelected bureaucrats. Career civil servants working in a regulatory capacity are typically very consistent experts who do a good job of taking vague shit that congress would otherwise fuck up trying to define more specifically and interpreting it in a way that makes practical sense to people who know what the fuck is actually going on. It's the political appointee leadership that tries to pull the creative reinterpretation nonsense you're talking about.
> I do not usually have every word I will respond with stored in my limited working memory. My output is often predicted based on the previous word I spoke.
People don't know exactly the words that they're going to say necessarily, but tend to start with a general concept of what they're trying to communicate and only then try to put together the words (sometimes out of order). LLMs do not begin with any sort of concept they're trying to express. LLMs are simulations that attempt to reproduce what an average person might say while wired up to a huge knowledgebase.
> LLMs do not begin with any sort of concept they're trying to express.
Why do the need to? Considering they are merely tools, I actually appreciate they do not do this. A calculator can compute far better than any human, but I appreciate that calculators are not capable of expressing anything about the computations I request. I want the answer, not a conversation.
> LLMs are simulations that attempt to reproduce what an average person might say while wired up to a huge knowledgebase.
If you will allow me to be simplistic, people -- the soul, the self -- are predominately the aggregated effects of memories and experiences and the ability to retain new memories based on new experiences, no? Consider medical conditions in the dementia family of diseases. As memories fade into the ether, what remains of the self?
Also, people simulate/emulate each other all the time based on what an average, reasonable person might say. People incapable or unwilling to perform such mimicry are often labeled with all kinds of pejorative terms.
Great point! I'd also add that Django's another solid choice for boring tech that LLM agents will know very well and will very likely continue to do so. A fair bit of SWE Bench and other Python benchmarks are Django related tests, which the LLM vendors care very deeply about keeping their scores up. Also, Django's docs are excellent, so strategically pointing an LLM to them in a prompt can often produce great results.
That's the great thing about Django, it's been around so long and the quality bar is so high that eventually all the major rough edges get sanded away usually in a really well considered manner.
> it's logically incoherent to try to determine what level of inflexible power generation will meet "the baseload".
Lots of folks don't know that coal and gas fired plants are able to turn down their power generation more than 90% (i.e., "ten to one turn down"). It's definitely true that cold restarts take a while. However, they often rather quickly and dramatically change their power output profile while running.
That depends on the design. Gas fired plants typically can turn down that much. However many coal plants cannot. The older the design the less likely it can turn down far.
> That depends on the design. ... The older the design the less likely it can turn down far.
I don't doubt there's a small number of plants that can't do 10-1. That said, transmitters are intended to be replaced and upgraded regularly since they have a finite lifespan (they're cheap anyhow). 10-1 has been around for 35+ years now and you're really lucky to get 20 years out of a transmitter.
I know of one factory that has their own coal power plant. The boiler is from the 1880s, the generator installed in the 1920s. It is horribly inefficient by any reasonable standard and takes hours to turn on. However because they keep it operational the power company gives them a massive discount on electric. About ever 5 years there is a major event and the power company has them turn it on for a few days and they power the entire town.
That's a really cool story! I live near a couple of industrial sites like that which have a power plant on site, that were shut down quite a long time ago due to environmental concerns they don't burn cleanly at all as you said!
A transmitter is a sensor in a power plant that very precisely measures the air flow within the combustion chamber, so the fuel burns as clean/efficiently as possible. Relatively new transmitters can read with more precision, so you can dial down the airflow/fuel and the corresponding power output.
> In fact, the complexity of Chat Messages and Notifications synchronisation is one of the prime reasons why React exists.
SSE is perfect for chat/notifications and is a lot simpler than syncing. The server pushes updates to the client doesn't require a sync. SSE is also more performant since it can keep the connection open. The example below is on a $10 vps last I heard.
> Having control of something isn't the same as third party services granting you access. Many online games only supports windows with secureboot and TPM enabled, but that would be a silly excuse to say that you don't really "own" your PC.
Your example is about one developer's decision, which is not really what we're talking about. The damage goes way up when you start talking about an arbitrary number of applications. A more apt analogy is, what if you couldn't install any applications except through the Windows Store? We're talking about restrictions laid down by the OS developer and for iding all applications outside of their crappy walled garden, which is very different. Also, you don't actually think Google is going to stop there do you? They will certainly turn it off one day of they think they can get away with it, because it is in their financial self-interests to do so.
>Your example is about one developer's decision, which is not really what we're talking about.
Is it? Many games outsource their anticheat to a third party developer, similar to how many apps outsource their app security to play integrity.
>The damage goes way up when you start talking about an arbitrary number of applications. A more apt analogy is, what if you couldn't install any applications except through the Windows Store?
What about (nearly) all the games that only support windows, and worse yet, are exclusives on one distribution platform? Yes, there's wine/proton and cracks, but that's a "solution" in the same way that using a modded apk to get past the play integrity requirements is a "solution".
You can publish to both and even better your own domain that simply points to your video hosting provider. Long term you want to own your distribution channel as much as possible, while using YouTube as your lead generation tool to drive true believers to your site and premium distribution channel not owned by YouTube. Otherwise, you will always be subject to platform risk via YouTube's whims which has destroyed many content creators. That's the long term winning play IMO and it doesn't preclude tools like FreeTube.
Realistically, how many viewers will be retained should YT shut the OP down? Right now, that number rounds to 0. Practically speaking, YT is free internet video streaming for long-form videos on the US market.
Nobody is going to go to OP's personal site to watch videos. They are going to fire up YT and eat what the algorithm feeds them.
The reason PeerTube and Nebula are important is it provides the potential for a true alternative destination for people looking for videos. Once these platforms have an enough content to draw an audience naturally, then content creators will be able to survive a post-YT world.
For people like the OP, it's probably best to follow the model video games do with DRM. Post on YT first, to get the ad revenue, then repost on other platforms after some time to build up an alternative subscriber base. Presumably, in-video sponsorships will pay for these views as well, even if there's no direct ad-sense like revenue model.
> Nobody is going to go to OP's personal site to watch videos.
Counterpoint: Channels with Patreons with uncensored and pre-release content.
Youtube can't be unseated as the main platform, but you're wildly wrong about the order of operations for what to do beyond your lead audience. No, you want to post on other platforms first, at a premium, and on youtube second. And should Youtube somehow magically evaporate, you just unlock your past premium content so people can find it and you have some degree of word of mouth as content that survived the apocalypse, as a lifeline.
> Nobody is going to go to OP's personal site to watch videos
Unfortunately, I agree. It's not the algorithm for me, though. Rather, it's the capabilities of the platform. I use the cast feature almost exclusively. I rarely watch a video on a computer screen and never on a mobile device. YouTube's casting feature is constantly broken, but it's the only thing that even barely works. I have no idea how many others see it this way, but I don't think I'm particularly distinct.
I've been following https://github.com/futo-org/fcast for a bit, but it doesn't really have a viable receiver implementation that I know of.
> Realistically, how many viewers will be retained should YT shut the OP down? Right now, that number rounds to 0. Practically speaking, YT is free internet video streaming for long-form videos on the US market.
People have been following this strategy of creating their own mini-brands for years and have their own following. YT doesn't even have all of the their content, and YT is just one lead gen channel. Frankly, Ad Revenue from YT is pitiful, and it's an open secret the real money is made as I've described (although it is a long term play).
I don't disagree with you about PeerTube and the like, but it is a two-sided marketplace and you need to prime both sides of that pump (content creators and viewers).
A bootstrap problem. No one goes until there's enough content and no one posts because there are no viewers.
What is needed is a way to ingest YouTube video through peertube or through a client that treats peertube as a primary destination and YT as a fallback.
This client then gives multihosting a single UI and blurs YT branding.
I think I go to YouTube because it has interesting content, and the fact it's in video form isn't particularly relevant. Some content must be in video form but not all of it. I also follow several blogs, and Hacker News. I used to use Reddit when it was less enshittified, the way I use YouTube now. I don't know why I don't follow Nebula - I have a subscription because I want to support more independent platforms.
> Long term you want to own your distribution channel as much as possible, while using YouTube as your lead generation tool to drive true believers to your site and premium distribution channel not owned by YouTube.
This reads like MBA advice but the reality is not that simple. For a variety of reasons, relatively few people have the ability to produce durable revenue over the long term by pushing their YouTube audience to owned platforms.
The most successful YouTubers get a lot of attention but the reality is that outside of the 1%, there is no "long term winning play" for most of these people. The average YouTuber who finds some success building an audience tries to milk it for as long as they can before they're supplanted by new faces, they burn out, their category loses appeal, algorithms change, etc.
Alright, you're hosting on FreeTube (paying for hosting & bandwidth costs) - how are you making money? Most YouTubers don't want to run their own ad network or sell a physical product. Sponsors make deals conditional on YouTube engagement metrics.
There are lots of strategies how to make money and it will vary based on your specialty. It could be premium content, premium services, exclusive engagement with your fans, merchandising (e.g., many cooking YouTubers sell their own brand of cooking utensils that they have designed themselves). It requires some thought, but the idea is to deepen the authenticity and engagement by building an actual community and your own personal micro-brand. The offering needs to feel organic and huge value to your community in some way. Many many people have done this on YT and now are making way more money than what's possible with the pittance that is YT monetization. YT then becomes just one part of your funnel intake strategy once you get big enough.
Edit: Of course, you do need to have enough demand/scale to make it worth your while, but that will depend on your audience size and how engaged/invested they are in your content AND you personally to an extent. Perhaps be creative and start out with small experiments. Not too hard with LLMs nowadays.
A bit more like Kevin Powell, who publishes lots of free CSS videos [0], has some good basic CSS Training Courses for free, but charges money for the advanced ones [1]. His videos are not only available on his site, but they're also on Front End Masters, which is a well known training site.
While I can't speak specifically to this person's earnings, I suspect you're overestimating just how much money average YouTubers make from owned platforms when they try to push their audiences to them.
It's very difficult to do this in a way that produces sustainable, durable revenue, and I suspect that people doing technical educational content are finding it increasingly difficult in the age of AI.
Trends for his YouTube channel look pretty much like what I expected given the general trends in the marketplace.
> It could be premium content, premium services, exclusive engagement with your fans, merchandising
To address the elephant in the room, except for "premium content", you're asking to pay for something the users didn't come for and most probably don't want.
So if you're not into mild grifting, the only way your content is directly monetized is paywalls, and that's an utterly complicated business as you need to show enough to entice, but not too much, while dealing with freebooting and custome support. It can be alleviated by joining a paywalled community like Nebula's, but it comes with it's own issues.
As you point out it's not impossible by any mean, it's just a huge PITA that will make no business sense for most creators compared to ad ridden platforms.
> You can publish to both and even better your own domain that simply points to your video hosting provider.
That one is likely the best use case while one monetizes on YT waiting for FreeTube to gain more popularity. Worth also for keeping a safer online accessible backup in case things go south with the YT channel being taken down for any reason, be it bogus copyright claims or else.
What I'm not sure of though is how long until Google changes YT rules to disallow linking or even mentioning competing, or perceived as such, services. Companies always do that: I'm a Ebay user since 2008, 100% feedback both as seller and customer, hundreds of positives not a single negative or neutral in 18 years, but a while ago Ebay in their infinite wisdom blocked a listing of mine because I added the links of the documentation needed to use the device I was selling; no way to appeal successfully or have it restored, they evidently either used a monkey or AI to detect what they identified as an attempt to contact the customer outside of Ebay, for a €30 item nonetheless. Years ago they didn't enforce such idiotic limitations, so I wouldn't put any trust on YT to remain consistent with their current rules.
> they evidently either used a monkey or AI to detect what they identified as an attempt to contact the customer outside of Ebay, for a €30 item nonetheless
Dunno if they’ve caught on, but just send what you need to send in a .png
Probably goes through a not-hotdog test, but that’s about it.
long term he doesn't want his own distribution though. youtube offers you new viewers constantly. peertube only makes sense if it has a viewerbase and an ad network, and at hte point we're back to google but they're going to pay more since they have a larger user base and more ads which means their monetization rate is going to be much higher.
disrupting youtube is super hard, you basically need to bring your own audience from something else to do it, or have a platform already existing that you expand into the us.
People don’t really want another step in the already arduous process of making videos - especially when the return on investment will be $0. This website will die off in a couple years and everyone who wastes time on it will be worse off for it.
You need to build a product so good that my statement above sounds INSANE. Not just “I think he’s wrong” but “dude absolutely no way. Everyone will want this. Are you stupid?”
And this is not that product.
Edit: yeah. I was curious so I went searching for ASMR videos. The default search brought some (terrible-looking) ones up, but half of them were in French? I sorted by views instead, and even though I literally only searched for “ASMR”, there were no longer any ASMR videos near the top of the results. For something trying to compete with YouTube, this is a very mid experience. Nobody is going to waste time migrating.
It's hard to discuss things online because the dumb people will make stuff up, then when you correct it they disappear but leave the wrong info up, confusing even more dumb people. Like an idiot-tsunami growing ever larger
I think for most people you're right, they just want to upload their videos, and maybe make a couple of bucks on the side. I was referring to folks who are truly committed to making this their career and want to have their own brand. Many, many people are already doing this, so it isn't something theoretical. Most YouTubers are automating their production pipeline, so another upload step isn't too hard, especially nowadays where it is easier than ever to build a bespoke, deterministic pipeline with agents writing scripts and programs.
> I think for most people you're right, they just want to upload their videos, and maybe make a couple of bucks on the side.
Sadly, those won’t make a couple bucks anymore. You can’t get a cut of the revenue until you have 1000 subscribers.
The couple bucks a month from my 1 video that was more useful than professional was nice until the moved that goalpost.
In case you were wondering why every bloody publisher, big or small, asks you to subscribe, even if, well, why would you subscribe to a channel that helped you fix your phone one day but their next video couldn’t be more unrelated?
Meanwhile in my “blogging” days, that first couple cents/bucks a month from Adsense convinced me to spend more time on it & make $20/month, then $200. Was $2000/month for a while. Now they expect you to work for free to prove yourself?
> Requiring a disclaimer is essentially admitting the content isn’t meaningfully different than human generated content. At that point, who cares? Just engage with the premise on its own merits, rather than on how it was written.
The problem is the reader has to invest time to find out and LLM written text will (on average) lower the quality towards "meh" and spend more words doing so. Even if the author is making an earnest effort to produce high quality content, they need to admit to themselves and others that their results will be more hit or miss. The disclosure allows the reader to make a more informed decision about how to engage with the material (e.g., have an LLM summarize or analyze the content, or just dive in because we know it will very likely be a good read). Editing what someone has written is like reviewing code, you're by default not as invested, so the results will likely reflect that reality.
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