I mean, the device code grant was codified by the IETF in 2019[0]. That is no guarantee that it is 100% secure, but folks have spent time working to make it as safe as possible. There's also a Best Current Practice (BCP) doc[1] and if you have suggestions to improve the flow, they'd be welcomed.
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> Agents are really nice to quickly craft utilities to speed up planning.
Reminds me of a conversation I had with Kelsey Hightower where he suggested that using agents to build utilities and software was a smarter way to proceed than using agents to do the work. It is almost like the software artifacts are a cached version of your understanding of the problem and can be used over and over again until the problem (or your understanding of it) changes.
Complex systems are dominated by feedback curves, but people insist on analyzing them by the forward transmission curves.
The separation between the cause and the effects are way less important than their polarity. High-order effects tend to be smaller, but they are also way more numerous, so things can cancel out or end-up resolved on either way.
i think this is a fascinating comment that highlights how tactical successes may turn to dust in the medium and long term - and also how the intention behind an action may often not be relevant to practical effects at all, since transitive consequences override the primary outcome (if it was even well calculated in the first place).
since this would be very meaningful for my understanding and reasoning about many social fields such as business or politics, i‘d like to know whether you have source material that supports the premise? is this a grounded concept or more of an ad hoc observation
Externalities always felt glossed over in economics. So yes this business will ruin the river for everyone but please direct your attention to this chart and look at all that producer surplus!
One of my favorite readings from undergrad and grad school was "The Problem of Social Costs" by R. Coase. I'm sorry you think externalities are glossed over by economics, but Im excited to tell you that this is certainly not the case. Coase won the Nobel Prize in economics in large part for his work on externalities. They don't hand out Nobel prizes for glossed over topics. It's definitely worth a read of you wish economics paid more attention to externalities:
They don't hand out Nobel prizes for glossed over topics.
Leaving aside the fact that the Economics prize isn't actually a Nobel Prize, topics which historically haven't been given enough attention are exactly where the highest impact research takes place.
If externalities had always received the attention they deserved, Coase would have never received his prize, because his work would not have been so important.
Coase did his most relevant work in the 1950s, and it wasn't as if he invented the idea of externalities. It was first given serious academic weight in the 1890s, and Pigou created the concept of externality correcting taxes in the 1920s. His work was important because it proposed a more market based solution than Pigouvian taxes.
I think its safe to say that externalities are not, and were not, an ignored sector given more than a century of serious work, and the fact that it is covered in any intro level Econ course.
Externalities arguably haven’t received the attention they deserve outside of economics, but I would disagree; what are climate change discussions, if not a discussion about externalities? Hell, just about any global issue is, in part, about externalities.
Inside of economics, they have more than 130 years of work, and are taught in any intro class.
If your argument is that we are bad at correcting for them, then yes. But that is different than not considering them.
> what are climate change discussions, if not a discussion about externalities?
Climate change has been discussed for well over a half century, yet one of the main priorities of the current administration has been to hamstring renewable energy and promote coal and oil. I think it's pretty fair to say the issue is being ignored.
Ignored by the administration, not by economists. The administration is a political body and proved over and over they don’t care at all about economists opinion (see everything from this admin about tariffs and trade policy)
Carbon tax, plastic bag tax, etc. are from the learnings from economic externalities that is applied to climate policy. Other non climate externalities based policies are sugar tax, alcohol/cigarette/drug tax, education, healthcare, etc.
The gutter mud soaked knife-fight practice of economics and the erudite study of economics is one of the more jarring discontinuities between how we talk about how something works and how it actually does.
The consideration of externalities that don't impact the bottom line is so alien to the real observation of the rites of capital that it might as well be written on the inside of a particularly boring rock in the oort cloud.
I suspect the person you are replying to was not referring so much to academic economists as a whole (which would include Coase and Piketty and even probably Marx) but rather the mercenary subset of economists who get signal-boosted by powerful interests in order to promote the self-serving narrative of the day, and yeah, that subset of economists dodges subjects like inequality and externalities with more finesse and agility than Neo dodging bullets in the matrix.
No, the USA wasn't crippled by over-investment on climate action. Trade and tax and social policy are where the mercenary think-tank economists did the damage.
At a certain point, businesses and the world in general focus way too much on the directly measurable rather than the accountance of the immeasurable (downstream effects)
Although, I am all for a data driven world but somehow it is my opinion that we have ended up with the worse of both as combined with the goodhart's law, this measurable thing just ends up somehow getting manipulated for short term gains over real long term damages.
As is your case in the example, the business will ruin the river for everyone having severe damage both culturally and I think financially as well given downstream effects of all people depending upon that river.
But the business has externalized the losses to the people and the people have externalized the responsibility of the river to the government and the government believes in absolute free capitalism! (or sometimes the businesses give the government some money in the pocket ie. corruption. "Cost of doing business" they said.)
I am not against capitalism itself (that Adam smith proposed) but capitalism in its current form is definitely something... and surely some if not most of us might agree to the fact that system isn't working as intended (well not working if it was intended for us ie.)
I think you're over analyzing to some degree. The distribution and median outcome (1st through N order) was always negative for the course of action this administration has taken. The proponents try to sell people on the notion that this could all turn out great, which is way out on one end of the tail (e.g let's say 1% chance for sake of argument) for this action, and here we sit right around a median realized outcome for this kind of an intervention. I'd bundle all the N order effects up, then look how an aerial bombardment operation affects the liklihood of outcomes like the straight of hormuz being closed and/or controlled by iran, or iran surrendering the nuclear material and raising the white flag, etc...
You could probably do some simulations to see this was almost always going to be a losing strategy. Detailing the N order effects is good accounting, but the picture likely gets murkier the more you try to extrapolate N+1.
It appears that right now the administration is fighting desperately to achieve an international state like the one had under the prior nuclear deal with Iran... the one Trump tore up because it had Obama's name on it.
It's all petty BS and I really do hope the electorate gets it together.
I was going to reply to this post with "surely shipping prices going up is a first order effect", but it's wrong. The real first order effect is the thousands of Iranian civilians (and fine, the hundreds of Iranian servicemen and the tens of American killers and their allies) whose families won't see them again.
and therefor you will not be surprised to find out that there has been a very recent dramatic decline in the asking price for empty containers in areas that are primarily devoted to imports, as the empty can is not worth the cost to ship it back.
In this case it's because of the time it takes to load the empties because its more profitable to use the time sailing. Some ports have rules now forcing them to take back empties so the yards don't fill up.
Yes. The Port of Los Angeles had a huge problem with empties when Hanjin went bankrupt. Everybody thought the South Korean government would bail out Hanjin, one of the largest shipping lines. There was no bailout. Port of LA finally shipped most of the empties to Fontana, CA, an inland city which exists mostly to move freight around. Three freeways, two rail lines, Amazon and WalMart plants, and an auto mall that's all truck dealers.
If you want a used 20' container, they're under $1000 right now in the Fontana area.
Probably much less in quantity.
which then leads to negative values for the cans, and makes it profitable for some trucking outfits to run "tiltload" container trucks, that can autonomously off load an empty can ,somewhere convienient
or other wierdness where filling a can with
an otherwise unprofitable comodity ,like hay, then drives a whole industry driven by water cost and the return value of cans, or scrap metal, and who knows what else, "half cut" cars, etc.
Dropping containers at the consumer end isn't that bad, at least when they're empty they're not that hard to move back on a truck and there are plenty of uses above scrap value for a container in seaworthy condition.
It's actually strange that we don't seem to have any system for just dropping containers at the destination until the contents have been processed, instead of the current system that essentially mandates unloading the container rapidly as soon as it shows up because an entire truck+driver is waiting for the unloading to complete.
For palletized loads it's easy to unload them into temporary space in the building they're delivered to, but not everything is palletized.
> It's actually strange that we don't seem to have any system for just dropping containers at the destination until the contents have been processed.
There are big forklifts for taking containers off trucks and stacking them.
Some recipients buy in bulk, store for later use, and stack their own containers.
But most distribution centers want to get the contents into pickable inventory and start selling it.
The US military does a lot of container stacking, because they want reserves, not a "just in time" supply chain. "Moving Mountains", by Gen. Gus Petronis, covers this. He handled logistics for the Gulf War.
Another common solution is to have the driver park and leave the container and chassis. Long-haul driver and tractor leave. Local movement is done with a "terminal tractor" or "yard goat", a mini tractor built for short trips. Those have a tight turning radius, good visibility, and low speed.[1] Like most buffering systems, it adds latency and consumes buffer space, while allowing more backlog.
I'm also seeing a vast array of smug comments from Seattle and Portland area personal electric car owners who don't realize that $7/gallon diesel affects Everything they purchase. My message to the smug EV owners is: Go hang out by the loading docks for your local grocery store for a full business day and tell me how many all-electric semi tractor/trailer trucks you see delivering product.
I don't want to pretend gas isn't getting expensive but let's be real, Amazon pays almost 200k for entry level positions in Seattle. If you earn that much and still feel you are going broke, then you are not short on money. You are short on common sense spending and budgeting skills.
Nate Hagens [1] often talks about a wider-boundary view and nth-order effects. I find it both informative and enlightening as well as thought-provoking.
Since the U.S. knew that Iran was 100% going to close Hormuz since Jimmy Carter, who also refrained from taking Kharg island precisely for that reason, the second order effects appear to be desired.
Otherwise they'd impeach Trump by now. Even if they make a 2 month ceasefire deal now, it will start again after that.
From the point of view of the people who would actually do it, the most important effect of impeaching Trump would be a messy political fight and likely losing reelection in November. The most important effect of not impeaching him is they get to stay in office. Everything else is unimportant by comparison.
The U.S. should form a coalition with the neighboring countries and "finish the job" once and for all. Negotiations with Iran will always amount to kicking the can down the road.
The US are incapable of finishing the job. That's what they tried to do in Iraq and look how it turned out. Iran is much more organised, has a competent secret police, is huge and better armed than Iraq was. It's physically impossible to carpet bomb the country like Israel is trying to do to Lebanon, so whatever you do you can be sure that there will be plenty of armed partisans. If the central power disintegrates, there will be a mess of Kurdish forces, the remains of governmental armies, and you can expect other interesting groups to show up along the borders with Iraq and Afghanistan. Even if the US were lead by competent people with a decent strategy it would be worse than a long shot. And they are not.
They are also incapable of forming a coalition. They pushed the Saudis and all the Gulf states, who hate Iran with a passion to the moderate "maybe starting a war was not such a good idea" camp. The latest noises about forcing them to make friends with Israel is exactly what you would do if you wanted to be absolutely sure that they will never help you. The noises about annexing Greenland and Canada made sure that nobody in Europe is going to be part of any coalition there willingly.
That's what happens when you take stupid decisions on your own because you're a big bully boy and allies are for chumps.
Destroying what remains of their missiles and drones and forcibly reopening the straits is absolutely possible. Estimates vary, but so far about 50% of their offensive capabilities seem to have been destroyed. Continue combat operations and destroy the rest. Escort ships trapped in the Gulf out. Maintain the blockade on Iranian ports to apply maximum economic pressure on the theocracy. I don't care about the internal politics of Iran. If the country descends into chaos or civil war, so be it. Hopefully, this may result in a collapse of the so called Islamic Republic. It is for the Iranians to decide what government they want, so long as it does not interfere with global and in particular U.S. interests.
> Destroying what remains of their missiles and drones and forcibly reopening the straits is absolutely possible.
They don’t need missiles to keep the Gulf pretty much closed, they just need drones. They have what, 1000 km of coast line with convenient mountains nearby? The choke point is 30 km wide, you don’t need more than shaheeds to prevent enough ships from sailing through that the others either stop trying or pay.
And you won’t prevent rockets or drones from reaching that coast line unless you have absolute control over the interior. Look at how much trouble Israel has with getting rid of rockets in the Gaza Strip.
> Continue combat operations and destroy the rest.
Afghanistan and Iraq demonstrate that it is much easier said than done.
> Escort ships trapped in the Gulf out.
That is going to be very impractical as long as they can just send marine, submarine, or aerial drones. Not unfeasible, but very difficult. The Huthis are still making trouble in the Red Sea, and there is an actual coalition to deal wit them there. Being locals with this kind of terrain is a massive advantage. There is a reason why anybody sane was saying that it was a stupid strategy.
> Maintain the blockade on Iranian ports to apply maximum economic pressure on the theocracy.
Which also applies maximum pressure on most of the world. That will become untenable quickly. Of course, the Russians are happy, though.
> I don't care about the internal politics of Iran.
You cannot solve a problem if you don’t understand it and the situation that caused it. Bush thought he could and he was wrong. Trump thinks he can and he is deluded.
> this may result in a collapse of the so called Islamic Republic
And I thought you guys were against regime change and forever wars. In the real world, it caused a rally-around-the-flat effect and a hardening of the government’s position and its grip on the country. I hope the Iranians can get out of this nightmare at some point, but it is not a given, and it is not the strategy most likely to lead to that outcome.
> so long as it does not interfere with global and in particular U.S. interests
lol. The US serve only the oligarch class’ interest. If you are serious about that, fix your government. It might not be as dire as the Islamic republic, but it is disintegrating.
What is "finish the job"? Iran is a large populous country that's mostly been a unified polity since Cyrus the Great. They are a different people and culture from their Arab neighbours - how will the Arabs rule and why will the Persians follow them? A colonial rule by the US will be more disastrous than the experience in Iraq or Afghanistan - in those days cheap autonomous drones didn't drop grenades on soldiers.
The present US President is smart enough to realise that now. In this case he let himself be misled by Israelis & their supporters that Iranians would rise up and replace their own Government. That indeed might have happened if the US had intervened when the Iranians were actually protesting some months before the present crisis. Now the US administration is looking for a way out without putting boots on the ground and Iran is looking to haggle on the price and for the US. this very business like cutting of ones losses is almost certainly the right move.
By finish the job you mean genecide of all Iranians or long term occupation and colonization? Those are only two finish the job options. And USA is incapable of either.
Also, it is impossibly to cooperate and make agreements with current USA. That limits the coalition options.
Absolute delusional take, considering that the US is not trustworthy as they started bombing twice during negotiations. Not to mention that the US keeps moving the goalpost every time Iran agrees, because the US gets its orders from Israel.
The US should get out of the region. Enough havoc has been caused because of it.
I mean a move that will get you checkmated in one is bad, but there are a lot less of those than there are moves that will get you checkmated in 4 that are just as bad of an outcome for you.
The hallmark of anti-intellectualism is to insist something is far simpler than they've been told, dismantle it and then find out why it was the way it was.
If you're an engineer, you've experienced something similar. You come across some code and scratch your head thinking "why did they do it like this?", spend half a day getting rid of it and then find out why it was the way it was.
There are people who understand all these complex systems. We just insist on silencing them, even firing them and then listening to the dumbest people on the planet.
You see this in startups too, even very large ones. I've now spent years watching people in crypto discover why exactly the financial system works like it does while spewing banalities about "disruption". Sometimes new thinking can be good but more often than not it's somewhere between ignorance and a scam, particularly when so much money is involved.
Another classic example: orbital data centers.
It doesn't have to be that way. The Chinese Communist Party is, despite the name, technocratic [1]. Xi Jinping's undergraduate degree is in chemical engineering.
Big companies that see the opportunity to be "Not AWS"?
A VPS provider who wants to grow their marketshare?
Nation states?
Not saying it'll be a small effort, but if the US continues to wield national laws to coerce American companies to negatively affect European citizens, it's possible.
> In the U.S. you generally can’t just up and fire someone, even if they are underperforming, even if it’s at-will employment, without risking a lawsuit and some sort of cash outlay. This is what makes hiring decisions so high-stakes.
I've been part of a few situations where someone had to be let go in the USA, and I can tell you it wasn't a trivial decision. There were legal aspects, sure, but there was also a personal aspect. As a boss said once "this is someone's life we're talking about here".
If they give a reason, it had better be a legal reason. “Because you’re Mexican” - not legal. “Because we don’t like you/you don’t fit in” - are you in any way different than management? Differently gendered? Differently skin toned? Different faith? Pregnant? Likely not legal.
They are not required to give a reason. You can be fired without reason.
There’s also mitigating circumstances. If the employee can show retaliation by the employer (say the employee participates in protected activities, like espousing unionization or questioning managerial decisions), they stand a chance of recovering damages from the company.
I guess that's the rub. every time I've been involved in firing someone that wasn't defensible as a 'broad structural layoff', there is a whole process, even in at will states. HR starts to collect documentation describing how the employees performance isn't acceptable, at that they were warned on such and such dates, and that all efforts were made in order to rectify the situation before an actual termination.
whether that's an excess of legal paranoia or not, that's how it seems to work
> HR starts to collect documentation describing how the employees performance isn't acceptable, at that they were warned on such and such dates, and that all efforts were made in order to rectify the situation before an actual termination.
I think this is a response to inexperienced, immature, or thin-skinned managers. The company doesn’t want to be on the hook for some manager’s attempt to fire someone and have it be an illegal firing. Since there’s typically no day-to-day log of behavior, HR has to begin documenting things. The only thing they can be certain is “safe” for the company is to fire for underperforming. So let’s begin the paper trail…
In practice, at any larger corporation with an HR department, despite the law saying so, you can absolutely not fire anyone for any reason. As a manager you’ll have to go through a 1+ month process of documented coaching, performance improvement plan, etc to gather evidence in case the employee sues after being let go. So not sure if Steve is technically correct here, but he is very much practically correct. It’s been like this in big tech, which is what Steve is talking about, for a long time.
Like walmart, mcdonalds, amazon, target, home depot? It’s incredible how insulated the HN audience is to the real life day-to-day concerns of workers in the United States.
These companies do PIPs for software engineers, which is what Steve is talking about. He isn’t talking about a warehouse or fast food job interview. I am not insulated, I am merely staying on topic.
Most places? Are you a human? Have you been to the United States?
Do you genuinely think McDonald’s is building a months long case against a fry cook? That Amazon is building a months long case against a delivery driver or warehouse worker who refused to pee in a bottle? That target is putting a cashier on a pip for months and allowing lost sales or theft?
It isn’t strange in 2026 to wonder if an internet comment is from a human.
Tech workers have been laid off (without pips) en masse for the past 24 months, so it seems like I’m talking to a model trained in 2023 to be so absent of the obvious facts around us in the industry.
That’s why I ask. Because you’re either not in the industry and talking bullshit, not paying attention to the world around you, or a bot.
is this sarcasm? tech industry has some of the worst layoffs ever. i have personally seen several different employers notify employees day of firing they no longer have a job
Not sarcasm. I guess I've just had different experiences than you.
The larger point of the effort involved before the employees' last day still stands. But that's a hard one to speak to generally, since most folks in layoffs or firings don't talk about the process used to arrive at the decisions.
You haven’t experienced the last 2 years of layoffs across the tech industry? Do you have any friends in the industry? Do you avoid news about the industry?
Because I see so many people who believe otherwise, here's a direct quote from a prior contract:
> I UNDERSTAND AND ACKNOWLEDGE THAT MY EMPLOYMENT WITH THE COMPANY IS FOR NO SPECIFIED TERM AND CONSTITUTES "AT-WILL" EMPLOYMENT. I ALSO UNDERSTAND THAT ANY REPRESENTATION TO THE CONTRARY IS UNAUTHORIZED AND NOT VALID UNLESS SIGNED BY THE PRESIDENT OR CEO OF THE COMPANY. ACCORDINGLY, I ACKNOWLEDGE THAT MY EMPLOYMENT RELATIONSHIP MAY BE TERMINATED AT ANY TIME, WITH OR WITHOUT GOOD CAUSE OR FOR ANY OR NO CAUSE, AT MY OPTION OR AT THE OPTION OF THE COMPANY WITH OR WITHOUT ME NOTICE. I FURTHER ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THE COMPANY MAY MODIFY JOB TITLES, SALARIES, AND BENEFITS FROM TIME TO TIME AS IT IS NECESSARY.
Every job I ever held but the unionized ones had some variation of that.
It doesn't last long, but it sure is annoying. Sometimes they even join and then spam DM rather than post in a public channel.
It must pay off often enough to make it it worth it, but I can't imagine hiring someone I found through a spam message.
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