It really isn't. Mainstream sites still play video with Flash, and I doubt that is going to change in 2010. But, we'll see.

Most people (Youtube) use flash as a wrapper around h.264; the other codecs supported are pretty terrible.

So that would mean that the 'evenly distributed' future isn't here yet? Wouldn't that still make it the future? Oh wait my head asploded.

The point is sites are already using HTML video, websockets, canvas, etc etc etc.

The future is now for websites and browsers that support it.

The challenge comes when a business must make the majority of its revenue off those that haven't yet received the future. Still supporting IE6, aren't we?