All the banks operating out of London have contingency plans that, at the very least, will move their primary legal entities to continental Europe.
If this had happened 10 years ago they would probably have moved them to Ireland but that won't happen now.
This isn't scaremongering. It's just the way the banks have to do business. It doesn't directly mean that all finance jobs will move to the continent. They won't. But there will be a slow migration over the next few years.
It is also highly likely that, over the next few years, the EU will implement the finance reforms that the UK has been blocking e.g. the transaction tax. It is almost unthinkable that they won't implement that for UK banks.
It is also wholly in the EU's interest to delay a trade deal on services and financial services in particular as the UK has a significant surplus wrt the rest of the EU. It's more questionable over manufacturing as we run a deficit. How quickly we can negotiate a deal will be a toss up between industry that will want one and politicians who are likely to cause a fair degree of pain pour encourager les autres.
> Out of interest why do you suggest that if the banks move they wouldn't move to Dublin?
Because some have been there and it almost took out the Irish economy. They, the Irish, won't allow that to happen again any time soon. The fact is that the Irish economy is quite small and banks' balance sheets are quite big.
Realistically, only Germany, France and maybe Italy would be big enough to take a significant chunk of the UK banking sector.
If this had happened 10 years ago they would probably have moved them to Ireland but that won't happen now.
This isn't scaremongering. It's just the way the banks have to do business. It doesn't directly mean that all finance jobs will move to the continent. They won't. But there will be a slow migration over the next few years.
It is also highly likely that, over the next few years, the EU will implement the finance reforms that the UK has been blocking e.g. the transaction tax. It is almost unthinkable that they won't implement that for UK banks.
It is also wholly in the EU's interest to delay a trade deal on services and financial services in particular as the UK has a significant surplus wrt the rest of the EU. It's more questionable over manufacturing as we run a deficit. How quickly we can negotiate a deal will be a toss up between industry that will want one and politicians who are likely to cause a fair degree of pain pour encourager les autres.