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Why America Needs India’s Rockets (bloomberg.com)
226 points by cscurmudgeon on Nov 3, 2016 | hide | past | favorite | 164 comments


On the one hand, its rather interesting to see the US, champion of free and open markets, enforce a policy so against that very principle. If I'm not mistaken, not only is US policy meant to assist the private space industry in the US, but to also avoid indirectly assisting the Indian missile/ballistic missile program. Although in India's defense the agency that develops/manages/deploys satellites (ISRO) is separate from the agency that develops military missiles (DRDO).

I think its a big mistake to continue with this policy. It doesn't seem like the Indian satellite/missile programs are dependent on revenue from commercial launches (although it doesn't hurt, for sure), so they will continue regardless. But by making use of them, US corporations can get the benefit of R&D paid for by Indian taxpayers, for free. Besides which, I think it would lead to better cooperation and understanding between the 2 countries in this very important area.


This is because any mature rocket technology can trivially be adjusted to be a nuclear weapons delivery platform. By assisting India you're paying for their ICBM development.

Maybe the line shouldn't be drawn at rockets, but unless you think we should have free & open markets for nuclear weapons I daresay you think the line should be drawn somewhere.


>> This is because any mature rocket technology can trivially be adjusted to be a nuclear weapons delivery platform.

There is also the issue of maintaining the capability domestically. If someone else is too cheap it would destroy the local capability. Imagine the US losing the ability to launch it's own satellites - like it lost the ability to launch people.

That said, there needs to be a way to make domestic launches competitive, so helping SpaceX or others while blocking foreign competition seem like a good idea all around. The goal should be to maintain domestic capability while hindering foreign nukes - not to maintain some company monopoly.


On the other side, Lockheed Martin which already builds C-130J Super Hercules in India, now wants to manufacture F-16 too in India.


It builds the empennages in India, for integration with the full assembly in the US.

And in any case both of those are less sensitive technologies - a transport plane that other countries sell equivalents to, and a previous-generation fighter plane for which India is in any case the largest expected purchaser (the production lines in the US are being wound down, and the move to India would be part of a purchase by the IAF), and to etch the US has already approved sales.

We wouldn't sell India a Minuteman, so we're sure as hell not going to find their development of an equivalent.


F-16's are old tech, which the US has been selling to its allies for decades. This helps finance continuing improvement, which keeps the US equipped with the best new military tech.


> Imagine the US losing the ability to launch it's own satellites - like it lost the ability to launch people.

We came pretty close to that brink after not bothering to invest in our own engine development. Makes the quarterly reports look great though.


> like it lost the ability to launch people.

The US has not remotely lost the ability to launch people in the context you're suggesting (lost knowledge, lost budget, lost political will). Its literally between launch systems. No knowledge or budget has been lost. On top of it, its doing what no other nation seems able to do, spark a space race between corporations with their own goals and cost-cutting measures. That's on top of NASA's incredible record of space science missions and robotic missions in the interim.

As far as the RD-180 issue goes, ULA buys those engines and re-packages them into domestic launch vehicles that create domestic jobs and keep the majority of the profits local. There's a big difference both practically and politically between this and having a foreign company launch your satellites. So India is not being treated that differently here.

That said, RD-180 purchasing is being phased out. The Delta IV is being retired and that only leaves the Atlas V, which I believe is no longer allowed to buy new engines since an earlier sale this year. That's on top of the Pentagon approving $162m to help fund the AR1 and BE-4 engines which will ultimately replace the RD-180 for the ULA.


The US has not remotely lost the ability to launch people in the context you're suggesting (lost knowledge, lost budget, lost political will). Its literally between launch systems.

NASA has failed at how many launch system projects since the Space Shuttle?


I'm not sure it counts as 'failing' when programs are under-funded, then de-funded entirely.


That's the point. A budget that looks underfunded to NASA is looks fantastically lavish in the context of ISRO (the Indian counterpart to NASA).


In a startup failing and iterating is a goal. Why should this be different in a government organisation?

(Assuming you learn from your failures)


If you could before, and can't now, isn't that pretty much a definition of "losing it"?


Two.


> By assisting India you're paying for their ICBM development

India is now part of MCTR (Missile Control Technology Regime) that limits ICBM development. So that's no longer a valid concern. Also, India has done well without the assistance of the US in space technology and will continue to do so. So if the US doesn't want to assist in technology, it's not going to be a show stopper for India. It will continue to eat at the small satellite launch business.


> India is now part of MCTR (Missile Control Technology Regime) that limits ICBM development. So that's no longer a valid concern.

That's regime sounds like a great intent, but the simple fact is that taking a satellite launching rocket, replacing the satellite with a nuke, and aiming it back at the ground somewhere is trivial.


A typical liquid fueled satellite launching platform would make a very poor ICBM. Liquid fueled rockets can't be stored fully fueled. The fuel is extremely volatile and slowly seeps out of the tanks. This means you have to store it empty, adding a huge launch delay.

ICBMs use much more stable fuels so they can sit in a silo for years on end. This requires totally different engines and fuel tanks.

tldr: You can't just stick a nuke on top of a liquid fueled rocket and use it like an ICBM.


Some liquid fueled rockets can be used more-or-less effectively as an ICBM. Despite being extremely volatile, rocket engines powered by hypergolic and room-temperature liquid fuels/oxidizer mixes can be stored fueled in silos for long periods of time. The notable example of this is the Titan II (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGM-25C_Titan_II) whiched served as the primary ICBM for the U.S. for 20-odd years (with some mishaps)


Yeah, I may have spoke too soon. After reading up on the India's PSLV rocket, it doesn't appear to use any cryogenic fuels or oxidizers. Maybe it could be used as an ICBM...


You can't use it as a deterrence/defensive ICBM because of the liquid fuels but it's still very viable as an offensive ICBM because you could just fuel it up when you're about to launch. It's not particularly practical but it's a viable make due if you've been unable to design a more normal ICBM.


But India has already done that. They're not at a nascent stage that they need help, they already have a fully functional nuclear program with working ICMBs.


You are underestimating how much importance world politicians give to pieces of paper that mean shit for commonsense. Do you think it is hard for a country like India to send a small nuke to USA and blow it off ? They can send it via ship, commercial jets and what not.

The point of MCTR is to prevent a nation from openly admitting they have such a weapon and hence it can not be used as an argument in any future negotiations.


The issue isn't India performing a terrorist strike agains the US. They'd love to send nuclear missiles to Pakistan, though.


They can already do this, and they don't thanks to

1) Their no-first-use policy

2) Pakistan already having nuclear weapons


US money that funded Osama, current money that ends up funding Pak Army/ISI seems to be a lot greater factors in destabilization of Pakistan than anything India has ever done.

For example I never understood USA providing F16s to Pakistan. It is nothing but USA's attempts to escalate the tensions.


And India needs ICBM for that ? If India wants to wipe out Pakistan off the map it is perhaps the easiest things to do than developing some nuke technology.


It's doable, not trivial. Tying your shoe laces is trivial.


You are mixing perspectives.

Trivial for a nation-state is different than trivial for a person. A nation like India could accidentally lose the amount of money required to hire a team of 20 to do the engineering to mount a working nuke to a working rocket.

Intentionally paying and assembling that same team would be trivial for a nation like India, USA, China or Russia. It could be as simple as a single line item on some military spending bill.


I think he meant that relative to the difficulty of actually creating a platform for accurate delivery of payloads to space, changing out the payload is, in fact, trivial


Thanks, I'm well aware of what he meant. Rockets have very specific requirements in terms of payload weight and shape. So do nukes. Matching the two would take actual engineering effort. Enough that I may not be possible to do so in total secrecy. Which is what this thread was originally talking about.


A treaty will not save the city erased in such and attack.

A treaty does provide a way for bureaucrats and ambassadors to meddle with, discuss and possibly prevent that attack in advance... if they know about it.

Mounting a working nuke to a working rocket can easily be done in secret by a small team.


They're also one of the two countries still in a nuclear deadlock with their fingers on the "button". Lets be realistic about this.


The United States and Russia have been in a nuclear deadlock since both sides got their hands on ICBMs.

Neither adhere to a no-first-use doctrine. That means that they reserve the right to scorch the world with nuclear fire, in response to an attack by conventional weapons.

It's hard to pin down exactly how disproportionate this level of hubris is.


Maybe it's the decades of arms reductions, the diplomatic relations, and the lack of a highly disputed border area which periodically erupts into violence?

But no... it must just be a double standard... if you squint hard enough.


As opposed to decades of proxy wars, sponsoring terrorism, election-dependent schizophrenia on the part of the Department of State, and much larger weapon arsenals?

The decades of arms reductions still put the arsenals of either the US, or Russia at ~10 times that of India and Pakistan combined.

At least India has a no-first-use policy. I'm not saying things are better in that conflict, but this is the pot calling the kettle black.


That's a whole lot of red herrings there, which have nothing to do with nuclear policy or not wanting to empower one side of an ongoing nuclear standoff with superior tech.

It does at least tell anyone with a scrap of skepticism though, where you're coming from. Equivocation is at the heart of apologism.


All of these things are incredibly relevant. Over the years, US-Russian relations have fluctuated between begrudging tolerance, open contempt, proxy wars, and even nuclear brinksmanship.

While the odds of nuclear conflict between them may be lower then the odds of one between India and Pakistan (And this is an arguable point), it will be incredibly more devastating.

As such, it's incredibly disingenuous to claim that New Delhi has it's thumb on the doomsday button, but that Moscow or Washington don't.


Except that you reversed the order of that list, which is in fact just the deescalation away from nuclear brinksmanship.

As for devastation, http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/RobockToonSciAmJan2010...


> nuclear deadlock with their fingers on the "button"

So much sensationalism in this comment! It's like watching a sensationalist news channel. Anyone who follows India-Pakistan politics know that nuclear war is unlikely. Neither of them can afford another war.

The "realistic" situation is that unless nuclear weapons end up in the hands of terrorists in Pakistan, there is no real nuclear threat.


Maybe I'm just cynical, but that sounds like PR to me.


American outlook on this issue needs a more pragmatic rethink in my opinion.

India will build any technology that it needs given sufficient time and money. Time is not something that USA has anymore. It's global influence is only going go down with time.

At least in my opinion it makes lot more sense for USA to see India as a potential borrowed knife/insurance against China and help her have good defense capabilities as well as build strong economic ties across all possible avenues.

It appears that trade and economic exchange is a much more important factor to avoid full scale war than anything else.


It's funny how US is okay with providing India with Uranium, but space launch contracts? Oh no! They could build ICBMs with that tech!


AFAIK, they only sold un-enriched uranium. If so, you may not be aware, but enriching uranium is NOT a trivial process.

If you can enrich uranium then you can build an ICBM - it takes a lot of good engineering talent and very expensive equipment for either project. Unless you can somehow get another state to sell you the necessary stuff... but I'd consider purchasing uranium enrichment centrifuges vs purchasing ICBMs to be similarly highly-sketchy endeavours (the ICBM more so, but only because it can be used more or less immediately).


you may not be aware, but India has also been enriching uranium since 1980s.


The terms set by the US government all have to do with pricing:

http://spacenews.com/customers-of-indias-pslv-rocket-say-ind...

I think the idea that it's primarily a security concern is very misleading.

Protectionism can always, always be framed as a matter of national security.


Imagine a world without nuclear weapons. We could progress so much further by combining mankind's efforts rather than limiting our potential because of "security constraints".


Huh. Reminds me of the plot of metal gear solid 3.


The discussion here is a good look at some of the complexity. I disagreed with some of the innuendo of the article but basically the notion of helping fund external space capability is complex. The goal of the Regan administration appeared to be to enable commerce with countries that already had a certain level of technology without risking destabilizing their own industry.

So imagine that what you're trying to achieve is this:

Allow companies that want to use rockets for their business purposes to buy capacity from other countries when your local capacity is maxed out, but don't take money off the table of your local capacity which is using that revenue to drive development and research. That is what the treaty was all about, can you imagine what would happen if the Chinese (for example) subsidized rocket launches for third parties like they have solar cells, or rare earth materials? Nobody would pay full price for launches locally, there would be no local business, and local rocket companies would shut down. (We've already seen this in other businesses) Now China decides to no longer sell those services or raise the price astronomically? (remember they did that with rare earth materials?) Now you are in a really tight situation. The whole RD-180 engine issue is exactly this problem.

Challenging indeed. So India could "fix" this by signing on to the treaty and agreeing to the restrictions. They choose not to it seems (I have no idea why) and so they are excluded. Is that a US policy failure or an India policy failure?


> So India could "fix" this by signing on to the treaty and agreeing to the restrictions. They choose not to it seems (I have no idea why)

Indians are fiercely proud of their space program, which is in opinion a wonderful feat in terms of technology. Their main objective is to use it for Indian interests, like Oceans, weather and defence etc. They've no interest in pursuing extra business, if it comes at the cost of bowing down to US stipulations. They're getting nice business from many countries in the world like Germany, France, African nations etc.

Source : I've read "Wings of fire" by APJ Kalam, which gives an interesting insiders view into ISRO/DRDO.


The US, like Britain and much of Europe has a long history of practicing economic protectionism. I wouldn't say its wrong one way or the other, but it is kind of hypocritical to say "Do as we preach, not as we did".


Hypocrisy and US foreign policy goes hand in hand.


As with any other foreign policy.


Even if the two agencies are funded and operated separately, their talent pool surely is not and I can't imagine their wouldn't be significant technology transfer because of it so the end result would be the same.


The article mentions that we already buy rockets from China/Russia. It's hard to imagine India as a bigger security threat than either of those countries.


Well China and Russia already signed the agreement and they both already have very mature missle technology which I don't honk can be said for India at the moment.

Also I'm not sure how much it matters in this case but India only joined the Missile Technology Control Regime a few months ago whereas Russia signed it a long time ago and China has agreed to abide by the original guidelines and applied for full membership in 2004.


India is less a security threat than a destabilization threat. I'm sure the US is more worried about them firing nukes at Pakistan than California.


I don't know on what you are basing the destabilization threat on. India has a no first usage policy on nuclear weapons [1] and has shown no intent of using the weapons. Also in all the wars in which India was involved, it was never the aggressor.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India_and_weapons_of_mass_dest...


> Also in all the wars in which India was involved, it was never the aggressor.

That's a bit of rewriting of history right there.

I suppose you will claim that India's involvement in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Dadra_and_Nagar_... was simply connivance and instigation by the government, not active participation by the Indian military? But https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Portuguese_India was definitely the Indian military, not just random groups supported by the government.

You could argue that https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangladesh_Liberation_War#Indi... was an instance of Pakistan attacking first, but note that India was actively arming and training insurgents inside what was at the time Pakistan. So it's hard to claim that this is an instance of Pakistani aggression without at the same time viewing the fairly symmetric https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indo-Pakistani_War_of_1965 as an instance of Indian aggression. Personally, I would consider the latter as Pakistani aggression, and the former as Indian aggression....

It's also hard to say who was the aggressor in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siachen_conflict because both sides were acting basically equivalently as far as I can tell.


You really need to read up on Indian history my friend.

The first and second article you link to is Indian territory that was re-acquired after India's Independence. At that time, India was not even a nuclear power.

The third article (about Bangladesh liberation) was not because "India was actively arming and training insurgents inside what was at the time Pakistan". Are you seriously so naive to buy into Pakistani propaganda?

The issue was that Pakistan itself was an aggressor which caused massive migration crisis (similar to what is happening now in Syria). With a massive influx of East Pakistani's into Indian soil, India had no choice but to get involved in the conflict. Even to this day there are hundreds of thousands of illegal Bangladeshi immigrants who have settled in India (who fled from the atrocities of East Pakistan).

About Siachen conflict: What part of the conflict do you think India was an aggressor? I really think you have superficial understanding of India's policy towards it's neighbors.

I can counter all your points with just 1 point: During the 1971 Indo-Pak war (with Pakistan as the clear aggressor), Indian army not just defeated Pakistan, but it also marched all the way to Lahore, Pakistan and occupied parts of Lahore. You can read about it here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lahore_Front

India could have kept the occupied territory to itself (like how Pakistan has done with Pakistan-Occupied-Kashmir and China with parts of Arunachal). However, it chose to honor a ceasefire agreement that was about to be signed (Note: "about to be signed". Pakistan continues to violate that ceasefire agreement to this day) and returned parts of the city of Lahore back to Pakistan. Have you ever heard of any country that returned conquered land back, on it's own volition, immediately after occupying it?

We also returned 90,000 odd war prisoners to Pakistan with dignity and respect (Read about it here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indo-Pakistani_War_(1971)_pris...). See a video of the surrender here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CI6qymVwkVA

Heard of any country that returned captured war prisoners (especially of that magnitude)?


Allies after WWII. Returning prisoners of war is required by LOAC.


Allies after WWI? How about the Treaty of Versailles? India and Pakistan signed the Simla accord as equals; not an unjust treaty.


> You really need to read up on Indian history my friend.

Probably true. I need to read up on almost every topic in existence.

> Indian territory that was re-acquired after India's Independence

Please see my response to AkshayGenius at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12866503

> At that time, India was not even a nuclear power

That's not relevant to the veracity of the "was never the aggressor" claim, which was not conditioned on nuclear anything.

> Are you seriously so naive to buy into Pakistani propaganda?

It's possible that the sources cited in Wikipedia for this claim are all Pakistani propaganda, though https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mukti_Bahini#cite_note-47 doesn't obviously look like it to me.

> With a massive influx of East Pakistani's into Indian soil, India had no choice but to get involved in the conflict.

Now we are back to deciding at what point national interest justifies military action, yes?

I'm not claiming the action was not justified, because I do not have sufficient knowledge to make that determination. But the original post I replied to wasn't talking about "justified" aggression either.

> What part of the conflict do you think India was an aggressor?

If Wikipedia is to be believed, and maybe in this case it's not, then the situation here was as follows:

1) The territory in question was disputed, and not generally permanently occupied by either side.

2) Pakistan was granting permission to mountaineering expeditions into the territory, based on various maps claiming that parts of the territory were in Pakistan as opposed to correctly showing that the border was not agreed on.

3) India responded by sending a military-sponsored (but not clear whether "military" in the sense of "armed") expedition .

4) Pakistan decided to establish a more permanent military presence in the area.

5) India found out about this plan and acted first to move its military into the area.

6) Pakistan attempted to dislodge the Indian troops.

etc. As I said, hard to decide who exactly is the aggressor here, as in most slowly-escalating disputed-area conflicts.

> I can counter all your points with just 1 point

I think you misunderstood my points. You seem to be responding to a strawman "India is an aggressive country out to get its neighbors" claim that I never made. As I said elsewhere in this thread, I think India has done a pretty good job of not being a military aggressor, and I think Pakistan has clearly been the aggressor a number of times in wars with India. I also think the claim that India was _never_ an aggressor is wrong.

> You can read about it here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lahore_Front

That's about the 1965 war, not the 1971 one. It also says India did not occupy Lahore, though it did get quite close to doing so. But to your larger point....

> Have you ever heard of any country that returned conquered land back, on it's own volition, immediately after occupying it?

Assuming we're still talking about the 1965 war, Wikipedia's article at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indo-Pakistani_War_of_1965 claims:

"Hostilities between the two countries ended after a United Nations mandated ceasefire was declared following diplomatic intervention by the Soviet Union and the United States, and the subsequent issuance of the Tashkent Declaration."

and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indo-Pakistani_War_of_1965#Cea... talks about some of the same.

If we're talking about that situation, then the 1956 capture and return of the Gaza Strip and Sinai by Israel is a similar situation.

Going a bit further back in time, Prussia returned almost all of the territory that it controlled at the end of the Franco-Prussian war of 1872, though they extracted a monetary indemnity for doing so. Even further back, in 1814 the Sixth Coalition restored the territorial integrity of France after exiling Napoleon.

Again, India acted honorably here, and such actions are reasonably rare. They're not unique.

> Heard of any country that returned captured war prisoners (especially of that magnitude)?

Sure. At the end of World War I, millions of POWs were released by the various belligerents. Numbers from back then are not very reliable, but http://encyclopedia.1914-1918-online.net/article/prisoners_o... lists somewhere in the 300k-400k range for just German prisoners of war held in France.

Returning prisoners of war at the end of the conflict is the _normal_ thing that happens. Not always, of course; an obvious counterexample is the Soviet Union after World War II, and to a lesser extent the other Allies at the end of that war. But nevertheless, it's the expected behavior. Obviously it's to India's credit that it did that, but it's a much lower bar than the return of territory, in my view.


How can you possibly compare the Indian armed action to regain occupied territory and her sovereignty back from the Portuguese to anything else? It was the only time India had to resort to military action, and it was shortly after her independence.


> How can you possibly compare the Indian armed action to regain occupied territory and her sovereignty back from the Portuguese to anything else?

Quite easily. The claim was that India was never the aggressor, not that all the aggressions were justified by some extenuating circumstance or national interest or whatnot. The "never the aggressor" claim clearly doesn't hold for https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Portuguese_India. I'm not saying that India shouldn't have done it, note, just that India has in fact used military aggression when it felt its national interests warrant it, which is perfectly normal for nation-states.

We can have a long discussion about whether we expect such situations, where national interests are judged to warrant military aggression, to arise in the future. But that's a discussion that should be had, not dismissed by appealing to untrue claims about history.

> It was the only time India had to resort to military action

Did you stop reading halfway though my comment?

Seriously, I think India has done a quite good job, as nation-states go, at not attacking its neighbors. But claiming things like "it was the only time India had to resort to military action" just doesn't look like it's supported by the facts to me. "One of the few times", yes.


Thanks for clarifying your points.

I understand what you're saying, but I feel the "aggressor" is the party that first commits an unwarranted action. India was in the process of decolonization and the Portuguese refused to leave, despite prior repeated non-violent requests. If the cops are called on an individual for trespassing, would you call the cops the aggressor for trying to remove the individual?


> but I feel the "aggressor" is the party that first commits an unwarranted action

That right there is a problem at the heart of the concept of "aggressor": what time point do we pick as the baseline such that actions that lead to changes after that are aggression but actions before that are the status quo?

This played out in Europe with Alsace-Lorraine, where the Germans felt that the French took it away from them in 1919, while the French felt that the Germans took it away from them in 1871 and they just recovered it in 1919. Oh, but the Germans felt like the French had taken that territory away from them in the 17th and 18th century...

This is obviously a situation that is somewhat different from that of the Portuguese possessions in India. But it highlights the fact that "unwarranted" can be hard to define objectively. In practice, it tends to get defined by the victors writing the history books, though nowadays it can get decided by self-determination referenda and _then_ the victors (possibly of the referendum, possibly of resulting armed conflicts) writing history books.

From our point of view at the beginning of the 21st century, the Portuguese possession of Goa in the mid-20th was unwarranted but the British possession of the Falklands right now is... well, depends on whom you ask, but generally considered warranted. How much of that is because the population of the Falklands is happy being British subjects, and how much is because the British won the Falklands War? I wish I knew. :(

> If the cops are called on an individual for trespassing, would you call the cops the aggressor for trying to remove the individual?

No, I would not. But this isn't a perfect analogy either. I think it would be _very_ apt as an analogy if India had gotten a UN resolution that the Portuguese need to leave; even more so if UN security forces then threw the Portuguese out. Yes, I realize that this was not realistic at the time, for all sorts of reasons, not least of which was the US explicitly saying it would veto any such resolution, if I read the history correctly.

But as it was, the situation is more akin to the owner of the property being trespassed on seeing that the courts and the police won't help him out and personally kicking the trespasser off the property. Would that be described as "aggression"? It starts to depend on your biases, especially if the trespasser had been there for a while. This last is why the concept of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adverse_possession exists in English common law, so arguments over squatting and tresspassing won't continue ad infinitum. To some extent this gets applied in the international arena. Of course it doesn't always; then you get wars over territorial changes that happened hundreds or thousands of years ago; no shortage of those in recent history.

Anyway, at the time, there were a number of countries that condemned the Indian military action, including some which in principle supported the idea that the Portuguese possessions in India should become part of India. That is, they felt that the ends were good, but that the means were in fact military aggression and needed to be called out as such. We could try to fit that sort of dynamic into the individual trespasser being removed scenario; that would involve there being a dispute about whether the trespasser was in fact now more like a squatter, as well as dispute about whether forceful removal now, as opposed to peaceful removal, or at least removal by police, after some period of time gaining support for the removal was the better course of action...

Where all that leaves me personally is that I consider violent attacks on a previously broadly accepted status quo as "aggression" but I then have to allow that some "aggression" must be morally acceptable when the status quo either was unjust or has become unjust and no other solutions are available. Unfortunately, "unjust" is not an objective judgement either. :(

The situation with the Portuguese possessions falls into the "has become unjust" bucket for me, assuming the population of those areas wanted the Portuguese out. The Portuguese did not put this to a vote at the time, which is somewhat telling; I'm willing to assume based on time period and general zeitgeist that in fact the population did want them out.

Of course I would be happier to assume that sort of thing if I didn't know about counterexamples like the Falklands and Gibraltar. :( But as a point of comparison, Gibraltar _did_ have a vote on the matter in 1967, which is a pretty similar timeframe; presumably the Portuguese didn't put things to a vote because they were fairly certain they would lose.


> what time point do we pick as the baseline such that actions that lead to changes after that are aggression but actions before that are the status quo?

Not just the point in time, there's also the level of aggression. Many wars have a set of ever-increasing nonmilitary conflicts leading up to them. If you're not defining aggression as a concrete military action, you have to choose a baseline for this too.

If you're allowing governmental-agression-that-may-incite-war to be counted as a "first aggression", then India is doing this right now in Kashmir. Yes, I know, that situation is more complex (and I'd prefer not to discuss it online; there's a lot of nuance lost and it's frustrating), but there are similarities in the situation.

----

Anyway, the definition of "aggression" to be used in this context depends on the context of the original statement, which was the argument that India is less likely to be a security threat because it has never been the aggressor. In this context, it is about military aggression, the argument being that a country more likely to escalate a civil issue to war is more likely to escalate to nukes in this modern age. To be clear, I don't feel that India is at all likely to escalate to nukes, due to various other reasons (including possibly personal bias). But I don't think that "India was never the first aggressor" is a valid argument in support of that.


By this definition is Ukraine the aggressor in eastern Ukraine?


By which definition? The "you could argue" definition that I don't agree with? Or my "personally, I would consider" definition?

By the latter, if country A is arming/training/providing insurgents in country B with no previous attacks by B on A, then A is the aggressor. So in the eastern Ukraine case Russia would be the aggressor.


How do you classify overt and covert military activity by a nation whose territory has been annexed towards the nation that did the annexation? Is it an act of aggression?


Given no more information than that, I would say the annexation was the act of aggression and the action in response is defense.

In fact, annexing another country's territory without any provocation is pretty much the definition of "a war of aggression".


So, would you count the civil wars and the war of independance as wars in which USA was the first aggressor? Oh nvm, that won't make a dent to the size of that list.


> would you count the civil wars and the war of independance as wars in which USA was the first aggressor?

Civil wars are hard to classify in terms of "who is the aggressor", but none of my examples were civil wars.

The American Revolution can plausibly be argued to be a US aggression, but it doesn't really match any of my examples either.

Of course I would never make the totally daft claim that the US was never the aggressor in a military action, since that claim is quite obviously and demonstrably false.


So, India fighting to regain parts of the remaining colonial territories cannot be matched to the war of Independence?

Of course I never claimed you did, I just made a clever remark.


> India fighting to regain parts of the remaining colonial territories cannot be matched to the war of Independence?

It's a hard call. For example, is it more of an analogue for the fighting in New York, or more of an analogue for https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Quebec_(1775) ? Would your answer be different if the Continental Army had managed to hold on to Quebec and it had become part of the United States?

Or, given the time lags involved in both cases, is it more like the US invasion of Canada in the War of 1812, which I view as a US war of aggression? Again, that invasion failed, but had it succeeded would that make it less a war of aggression?

Note that there is a significant difference here in that the US that was invading Canada in 1812 had no reasonable claim along the lines "we are all one polity that was just colonized by different people and should be a single state" to justify its attempt to annex part of Canada. But that same issue applies to the rest of the war of independence too.


As a native of Goa, my forefathers fought very hard against the colonizing Portuguese. I have lost countless relatives to the oppressive Portuguese rules. Goa was part of India always.


Have you seen Dr Strangelove?


Uh what about the Forward Policy that directly lead to the 1962 Sino Indian war?


The first strike policy is irrelevant in this context. What matters is capability and parity. If a country develops a nuclear capability that they didn't have before, in his case weapon delivery, this is proliferation. This puts pressure on other states to come to parity with that new capability. In this case that pressure would be likely on Pakistan.


This western view of Pakistani "parity" is mother of all nuisance. US literally funded Pakistani proliferation with billions of aid, which every one knew was being diverted, while those guys were hiding Osama in their cantonment. Yes, Pakistan would be eating grass if it were not Saudi and American aid.


There is also reason to believe that the CIA snuffed out Bhabha.

It's admirable that while the China obtained its tech from USSR, India led by Homi Bhabha used a civilian Canadian reactor to do it all by themselves.


And the sad part is all of this happened as Pakistanis were killing and aiding those killing American soldiers. http://nationalinterest.org/feature/americas-pakistan-policy...


FYI: India doesn't need an "ICBM" to nuke pakistan.


> India is less a security threat than a destabilization threat

Uh, what? This is complete bullshit. Where do you get this kind of garbage from?


Why is this concern not valid for China or Russia ?


India is a cat still in the bag.

China and Russia are already cats out of the bag. Other more sophisticated means are required where they are concerned


How is India still in the bag? Don't they already have ICBM/nuke capabilities?


It does, look at AGNI-V and AGNI-VI


Let me rephrase, when the law was enacted in 2004 India was still in the bag and only now have they looked at updating the law.

It is also possible they are not entirely out of the bag and pushing them out may not be a desirable goal.


> On the one hand, its rather interesting to see the US, champion of free and open markets

Critics and advocates of American economic policy like to label it as capitalist and / or free-market (like there's a difference), but it's really not.

For one major example, consider the incredible level of restriction on immigration.


Meh, USA is only such a champion if it benefits the bigwigs running the show.


Only after we dismantle Pakistan and India nuclear weapons programs.


Sure, once we've done the same to US, Russia, China, France and the UK.


Leaving only North Korea and Israel?


Shh, Israel's are a secret.


As much I know ISRO has less failure rate and they get the job with little budget in comparison to NASA or any other space agencies. This alone is the reason, one might be tempted to use Indian technology.

> India's Mars mission, with a budget of $73 million, is far cheaper than comparable missions including NASA's $671 million Maven satellite that is expected to set off for Mars later in November. Source: http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2013/11/04/243082266/...

For failure rate comparison: http://www.vox.com/2014/9/24/6838079/india-mars-mangalyaan


MOM and MAVEN were just about simultaneous (arriving at Mars two days apart), but they weren't comparable. MOM's primary mission objectives were things like "navigation." MAVEN would be NASA's 3rd orbiter at the time, to say nothing of the 4 or so previous orbiters, and so they weren't trying to just repeat earlier things.

Now, if you compare launch costs, you get a better feel for the differences. Those were about $43 million (MOM) to $187 million (MAVEN). But MAVEN was almost twice the mass.

SpaceX will give you a Falcon 9 Full Thrust launch, fixed price, for $62 million, which can launch something twice as big as MAVEN to Mars.

So SpaceX and India are price competitive on a kilogram-to-GTO basis.


The price you quote for a SpaceX launch covers the reusable portion of the payload only, not the full unlocked capability of the launch vehicle. That's an Apple's to Oranges comparison.


The difference being, of course, that the Falcon 9 Full Thrust hasn't actually left Earth orbit yet.

Mark to market applies as much to space technology as it does to credit default swaps.


Falcon already delivered DSCOVR to Sun-Earth L1, while PSLV only flew MOM to a highly elliptical Earth orbit and MOM had to use its own propulsion for TMI.


Sun-Earth L1, while not in Earth's orbit, is still within the Earth's Sphere Of Influence as it has a negative Characteristic Energy value.


>> Falcon already delivered DSCOVR to Sun-Earth L1, while PSLV only flew MOM to a highly elliptical Earth orbit and MOM had to use its own propulsion for TMI.

Wait till PSLV delivers Aditya-1[1][2] to L1.

[1] http://www.isro.gov.in/aditya-l1-first-indian-mission-to-stu...

[2] http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/aditya-1.htm


Cite?


I don't object to the respondent: it's true, SpaceX has broken out of earth orbit -- but that's still a far cry from deploying to Mars.

My point stands: SpaceX needs to get to Mars once before we can start calling them serious interplanetary contenders.


I'm not sure why it's important to debate whether or not a company is a "serious interplanetary contender", but I do think it's important to get the facts correct.


You also have to consider that Indian salaries aren't remotely close to US salaries and other local factors. Software engineers make 12x what they make in India. The US can't just have a $73m mission considering the standard of living for engineers and managers here. ISRO is notoriously cheap even by Indian standards. Its probably not realistic to expect this type of pricing the same way the US can't mass produce things as cheaply as China can.


This is a very important factor, for sure. Its very fortunate that the Indian education system does produce a lot of engineers. Quality is a problem, for sure, but I would argue it is much easier to train someone who has had some exposure to Math/Science than to start from scratch. This is one of the areas where India's large population and emphasis on education (specifically engineering) seems to be paying off very well.


Unfortunately the majority of grads are unemployable. India definitely produces high quality engineers but they are limited to a few good schools and occasionally an exceptional student from somewhere else. You only need walk down the street in India to see ads for private engineering colleges run in shacks.


> You only need walk down the street in India to see ads for private engineering colleges run in shacks.

What are Indians going to do when there few good colleges.


That's a long time ago. Now there are many companies and many jobs that pay a 100K USD in India. Also Indian software engineers get promoted really fast into management with vastly higher salaries.


ISRO salaries straight from glassdoor:

Scientist/Engineer ₹802,100 Scientist/Engineer ₹798,473

So, 800k rupee is about $12,000 USD. NASA's avg engineer salary is 10x that.

edit: NASA employees also get generous government benefits like pensions and such. Federal employee benefits are the envy of the nation. Not sure why you people are arguing against basic facts here. Salaries, cost of living, etc are a fraction in India compared to the states. Thus you can't compare project costs.


Just so you know, people who look for competitive salaries, don't really dream of working in ISRO. It's not nearly as attractive to decent Indian Engineers as NASA is in America.


ISRO salaries are extremely low compared to NASA's (or any engineer in the US). Indian government positions do offer more "benefits" but it still does not add up to nearly half of what an average NASA engineer's salary. You also have to take into account that what ISRO puts into space versus NASA is very different (due to budgeting and that the ISRO has become more active recently).


Don't go on these numbers alone. There are a lot of other perks that you get when you work for a government organization or PSU in India. For example housing, transport, pension etc is all taken care by the organization.


Housing yes. Transport is taken care of only for official purposes. Only once in 2 years is a family travel paid for by LTC (IIRC). Pension is now more like the 401(k) in the US.


the cost of living is much lower in India. $12,000 is a good chunk of money if you live in India.


Actually, $12k (INR 800k) is a good salary in Bangalore (ISRO's main office), but only for an entry level position. If you are in your 30s, you would need at least double this to live nicely. This is quite less compared to the salaries of people working in multinationals in Bangalore.


> China

I don't how does China come into picture. I don't expect China to help India in space programs.

Second, technological investment in space program is not mass production.


Indian PSU research centers are well-known for being incompetent (including DRDO, CSIR, HAL...) [1]; in this ISRO is something of an oasis (or so I've heard). These orgs are generally neither nimble, nor particularly interested in acquiring talent, unlike their American competitors (or even NASA). Hiring is often one large nationwide JEE-like exam held once a year to recruit new engineers. Not surprisingly few Engineers that end up working there are from top colleges.

Given all this, it's not clear how long ISRO will be able to hold on to its first mover advantage, with regards to cheap launches. While INR being undervalued may be one advantage, it may not prove to be enough to compensate for bad logistics and attrition. Admittedly though, the latter are not as big problems for ISRO, as they are for manufacturing companies.

If there are folks from ISRO here on HN, I'd love to know about their management/coding practices and the like. In any case, the whole "defense" line is a non-sequitur

- Everyone knows that the Indian bureaucracy leaks like a sewer.

- DRDO is hardly an organization that needs fearing; apart from the above anecdotal data, most of the components/tech used by the organization are imported. A Homi Bhabha is not apparent in the current state apparatus.

- The state has hardly had any real geopolitical goals (after Nehru-Indira Gandhi).

[1] Haldane called CSIR, "Center for the suppression of independent research".


You make a lot of sweeping disdainful generalization and I don't have time to correct all of them. However, I can speak about DRDO-- I began my s/w career as a student intern in DRDO -- I worked in a lab that was developing Nag anti tank missiles. This was a hard and complex undertaking and we had very few resources. TCS etc have better computers than DRDO . And yet the people I worked were dedicated professionals and believed in their mission . And the Nag anti-tank missile is success.

I don't think I will change your opinion ; I just want to point out to anyone who might take you seriously that you are full of shit.


Weirdly, I had an opposite experience as an intern in DRDO. I found the employees wasting enormous amount of time on tea/lunch breaks and waiting at the swipe gate 15 min in advance in the evenings to bug out. The low level cadre are the worst in this. Scientists (regardless of their level) seem to be passionate about their work but the support personnel assigned to them hinder a lot. A lot of manufacturing (and design) seem to be outsourced to third parties and the highest cadre is busy minting money from these contracts. I felt sad about state of things during my internship - considering that it was known to be in great condition when APJ was around.


That is true -- the admin folks were awful. But the geeks , scientists and engineers , were dedicated and professional. Of course I was there in '89-90-91. That may be a different era but the Nag missile is still performing. I wrote some doppler effect processing libraries in assembly; my supervisor to knew how to squeeze the maximum performance out of assembly code. It was a fun and educational experience.


The assertions of incompetence of Indian PSU's are not without merit, although I think you are taking a rather pessimistic view of institutions.

First of all, there are a whole lot of talented engineers in India, simply because of the population itself. Few go to the top colleges that you speak of and graduating from there doesn't necessarily mean they are the "best". So you can't take a lack of graduates from those colleges as a sign of lack of competence.

Next, good institutions can take even "mediocre" people and enable them to do great work (Notice that I use "enable" and not "guarantee"). ISRO seems to have created such a culture, and as long as that tradition/culture continues, it should continue to do very well.


That's true; indeed, the fact that ISRO does so well supports what you claim.

That however does not contradict the fact that India's exam system also filters out a lot of smart people, and trains them really well... most of whom have historically have left for the US.


That trend slowed down a long time ago. There are as many smart people in India as there are in the US. Those who migrated/are migrating to the US, migrate for greener pastures. There is no reason to believe that those who migrate to US are necessarily better than their Indian counterparts. In fact, I know quite a few who got calls from top-tier colleges in US (Stanford/Harvard etc) but chose to stay back in India and launch their own startups.


Somewhat related. Three ISRO scientists did an AMA a couple of years back. https://www.reddit.com/r/india/comments/1ujcmo/we_are_three_...


Good lord, I don't think there is such thing as "attrition" from ISRO, where do you go from ISRO? People don't work for ISRO if money is their #1 criteria, people work for ISRO/DRDO etc if they want to serve their nation, it is much like the armed forces.

From your comment, one can only say that you have 0 knowledge about India/culture and DRDO, you are entitled to have an opinion but please don't have opinions based on incorrect facts/assumptions.

>Given all this, it's not clear how long ISRO will be able to hold on to its first mover advantage, with regards to cheap launches

It isn't "first mover advantage". The term for it is being nimble. ISRO/DRDO run a lot like startups who have little funding, they have brilliant scientists who want to SERVE the nation, also there is no other org you'd work after you leave ISRO/DRDO, there is no Lockheed Martin equivalent in India!

>DRDO is hardly an organization that needs fearing; apart from the above anecdotal data

What data? It isn't just about DRDO, you don't need to "fear" India, don't you know that there have been so many terror attacks on Indian soil and India has never retaliated, only now have we done a surgical strike. So yeah, you never have to fear India at all. If you ignore the "invasion" of Goa when the Indian union was relatively new (and the Shri Vijaya Kingdom which extended to Malaysia) India never attacked another country and it won't, because now, the country faces much larger problems, and India never was territory hungry.

>- The state has hardly had any real geopolitical goals (after Nehru-Indira Gandhi). Yes, it doesn't.

Also, programming isn't as mainstream in India as it is in the US.


Multiple friends who moved to the USA for their higher education (MS/PhD) in fields such as Aerospace Engg complain about the very tight regulations in the field. For many people, even being top of the class means coming back home, because companies like Boeing/ SpaceX etc have very tight US citizens only rules imposed on them. This is almost completely opposite to the Comp Sci. graduates who assimilate almost immediately into the workforce. In a way, this has helped India develop it's own space program because many graduates from top universities do come back home and join ISRO (albeit I'm sure many others don't for various reasons).

Why is there so much country-based regulation in these fields? Is it because the traditional patriotism associated with the field (US vs Russia in the 60's was legendary)? or is it simply resistance to change?


Because a lot of those companies are involved in defence and national security (List X in uk terms) its probably impossible for non citizens to achieve the required security clearances.

Not so long ago in the UK you had to have both sets of grandparents as citizens to Join the civil service.


A rocket is an intercontinental ballistic missile with a different flight plan. So every nuclear power want to stay ahead in the game.


I think the US is just adding a self-imposed constraint that hinders their own progress. Other nations have built ICBMs and have space launch capabilities too. The US is not significanltly "ahead in the game" and their development is slowed down by hiring US citizens only in the aerospace industry.

Not all rockets are practical as ICBMs. ICBMs tend to use storable (hypergolic) propellants so they can be maintained and ready to launch at short interval. Many space launch vehicles, such as those built by SpaceX, use cryogenic propellants and need to go through a time consuming (and dangerous!) propellant loading before they can be launched. (note: the Indian and the Chinese space programs use primarily solid fuel and hypergolic propellants)

I'm sure SpaceX, ULA and others would be happy to recruit non-US citizens if the regulations didn't disallow it.


Are there any remaining ICBMs that use liquid propellants? Liquid-fueled ICBMs vulnerable to a first strike, not to mention all those messy accidents with hypergolic fuels.

Also, China's new Long March 5/6/7 rocket series reduces Chinese use of hypergolic fuels to a minimum. All 3 have now launched at least once.


Yes. The more specific regulation is ITAR -- https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Traffic_in_Arm...


You'll note that countries in Europe also require to be an European citizen for this line of work.


As far as I know, for jobs in the ESA, you must be a citizen of an ESA member nation (not the same as EU).

I'm not sure if there are similar restrictions to the US that apply to working aerospace industry jobs (say Airbus).


> I'm not sure if there are similar restrictions to the US that apply to working aerospace industry jobs (say Airbus).

There are. Hence my initial message ^^


What's the limitation? Do you need to be French in order to work for Airbus aerospace? Or a EU citizen? Or a citizen from a list of approved countries?


> Why is there so much country-based regulation in these fields?

Because same rocket technology could be used to either put a robot on the Moon, or a nuke in someone's backyard on another continent.


One of the things I always struggle to understand is whenever ISRO get mentioned people jump on US vs India salaries. We live in a world where globalization has changed everything. See what happened to Solar industry when China started dumping cheap solar panels across the global market. Auto manufacturing, software business and many other sectors it is a very common practice. If you have a target of launching something in orbit why not save the money and use technology used by ISRO save some money and use it for another project.


TLDR: They're two different agencies that have different cabailities and responsibilities.

Other than logistics cost NASA's rockets have much higher payloads (think 100 tons vs 10 tons), number of rockets available, number of satellites launched into space (but I think ISRO technically has a better success rate), deep space missions and research(ISRO recently sent its first MARS rover), space stations, manned missions, NASA is also involved in aeronautics, and robots/rovers. Source: https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-difference-between-NASA-an...


ISRO is moving towards it's first manned mission as well. It recently tested it's first Reusable Launch System: RLV-TD (Launch video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nzxe6q60R70)


Another reason is that, with respect to the rise of China, the United States is committing to investing in a rising India to challenge China economically, politically, and militarily.

Somehow the article fails to mention the burgeoning defense relationship between India and the United States, and the US imperatives to build out regional challengers and opposition to a China that is growing in power.


The article also fails to mention the existing defense relationship between Pakistan and the United States, and the United States' imperative to make sure that India and Pakistan both fear the other enough to not do anything rash.


Nice. The article somehow focuses entirely on a (primarily exaggerated) economic aspect of the new defense relationship.

This is pretty common in the US press, and leads many of the people inside the country both to evaluate criteria with highly theoretical economic dogmas and to assess their country as both apolitical and unstrategic.


> Since 2005, U.S. satellite manufacturers have been prohibited from hiring India's space agency to launch their equipment. So interestingly why not India then?

> Indian Space Research Organization has consistently punched above its modest weight class, racking up a series of cheap and practical achievements.

Aren't we using Russian RD-180 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RD-180 engines which also seemed to punch above their weight class. Allegedly it was hard it believe it was possible to run engine at that efficiency level.


> Aren't we using Russian RD-180 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RD-180 engines which also seemed to punch above their weight class. Allegedly it was hard it believe it was possible to run engine at that efficiency level.

I don't think professionals were that much surprized. George Sutton (author of an encyclopedia on the subject, https://www.amazon.com/History-Liquid-Propellant-Engines-Lib...) writes: "The history of liquid propellant rocket engines (LPREs) in the former Soviet Union is remarkable because they have developed a larger variety and a larger number of LPREs than any other nation and the number of their LPREs that have flown is considerably higher than that of any other country." http://arc.aiaa.org/doi/abs/10.2514/2.6943 So having RD-180 performing as they do could be rather expected.


The Indian space program has been using solid fuel rockets in most of their space launchers.

I'm not sure how that compares to the (liquid fueled) RD-180 in terms of efficiency, but it's a very different type of engine.


I think these days you can find solid fuel boosters, LH2-LOX upper stage and storables - all on a single ISRO rocket. Can you also find a kerosene stage?


Kerosene stage[1] will be ready in few years, probably by 2020.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SCE-200


IIRC, ULA is the one that uses the RD-180s.


This article seems fairly absurd, and probably is propaganda, given India's track record compared to the US regarding rocket design.

On the other hand, India's Mars Orbiter Mission has been the lowest cost successful Mars mission to date, so they are not exactly slouches.


Why is United Launch Alliance always ignored in these discussions?


It will continue to be ignored until it approaches the relevant pricing tier.


Use IRSO and we all lose. India's government is subsidizing these rockets. SpaceX, on the other hand, is developing technology that really makes space travel cheaper. Only the latter will move us forward in the long term.


How does Indian government financing ISRO have anything to do with the cost of the rocket? ISRO is wholly owned by the Government. Would the cost of building the rocket be substantially higher if it was a private company? Nope!

SpaceX is developing technology that makes "space travel cheaper" not "deploying small satellites cheaper". Both fall into different categories altogether.


ISRO doesn't appear to pay competitive salaries for engineers. The Russian space program had a lot of challenges when engineering wages went up a lot. India's success with outsourcing and other engineering is the cause. It will be interesting to see what ISRO's costs look like when increased salaries ripple through their workforce.

BTW there are several startups targeting small satellites. One is the Electron rocket from Rocket Labs. There's also the European Vega rocket, and Japan's Epsilon rocket. SpaceX has already had one launch purchased by a company that groups together small satellites to launch together.[1]

All in all, small launches are a very active market.

1: http://www.spaceflight.com/spaceflight-purchases-spacex-falc...


ISRO scientists are paid standard government scale salaries for engineers and scientists. Their salaries are also at the same scale as bureaucrats, civil servants and military. Increased salaries can only happen if indian government is ready to increase salaries all over it's 5 million large workforce. Government salaries have the same percentage growth all across the workforce.

Hence I believe you are seriously mistaken about competitiveness of pay in ISRO. It is not feasible for the government to pay at the same scale as large multi national private companies to all it's workforce. India is just not rich enough.

Even top level bureaucrat jobs like "Cabinet Secretary to the Government of India" don't get paid a lot compared to what salaries are like in the West.


When you say "ISRO doesn't appear to pay competitive salaries for engineers" who are you comparing with? SpaceX/NASA?

ISRO pays competitive salaries for engineers. At least as per Indian pay scale. Most ISRO scientists/engineers lead a comfortable life. You can't compare the pay scale of a SpaceX/NASA employee with that of ISRO employee because the economies of both countries are vastly different. Also, SpaceX/NASA wouldn't hire Indian scientists/engineers in bulk to make it competitive anyways. So where is the question of competitive salaries?

"It will be interesting to see what ISRO's costs look like when increased salaries ripple through their workforce."

It won't make any difference. ISRO is a completely profitable enterprise for the Indian government. So even if the salaries are increased it won't make any impact on profits.

"BTW there are several startups targeting small satellites. One is the Electron rocket from Rocket Labs. There's also the European Vega rocket, and Japan's Epsilon rocket. SpaceX has already had one launch purchased by a company that groups together small satellites to launch together.[1]"

Yeah but these companies don't have the same track record as ISRO does. I checked the companies you mentioned and the launches range from 1-15 in the past decade with quite a few failed attempts. ISRO on the other hand has had 56 launches with only 8 failed launches. I'm only talking about launches from "Satish Dhawan Space Centre" and not even considering ISRO and Arianespace collaboration which launched heavy payloads.

"All in all, small launches are a very active market."

ISRO is not just focusing on small launches. It recently tested a Reusable Launch System: RLV-TD. See here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nzxe6q60R70 Of course there is no brouhaha or chest thumping involved as the ISRO team is pretty modest about whatever progress it makes. Hence you won't find this featuring on your Western news channels. This reusable shuttle will be used for sending a manned mission to Moon.


I was comparing to Indian salaries. For example, as you're probably aware, the outsourcing industry has caused a rapid rise in computer engineering salaries in India. A similar thing happened in Russia already.

I only referred to small launches because you mentioned them.

If you're interested in Indian rockets with larger payloads, you might be interested in checking out the GLSV Mark III, which is expected to reach production long before the RLV-TD: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geosynchronous_Satellite_Launc...

I read about both the GSLV Mark III and RLV-TD in Western news sources.

I'm a big fan of India's space program, but it's very tedious getting downvoted on HN for talking about it.


But you just can't compare private company salaries with government salaries. The perks that are enjoyed by government employees far outweighs that enjoyed by private employees. You might be tempted to think that private employees get "x" times more than government employees and they should be better. But that is not how it works in India. If you are a private employee there is a possibility of getting fired. If you are fired, getting a job again is akin to going through hell. If you have a home loan from a bank you are doomed.

Government employees in India are the blessed lot. They of course have lesser salary but the perks they enjoy more than make up for it. They get free housing for life, pension after retirement, free insurance, they can purchase land at extremely subsidized rates (which for a private employee would be his entire life savings). You just can't compare salaries. Especially in a country like India.

EDIT: Not to mention: If you are a government employee your social life is set. You can easily get married (not easy for a private employee. You have to be in a top MNC and earning a big salary or have a graduate degree from a top-tier university in India). Your entire family is covered by Government insurance for lifetime (which for a private employee ends as soon as his employment terminates). In some cases, your next kith and kin are guaranteed a government job in case you pass away prematurely.

Also, a Government job is the most sought after in India. There is major competition to get a government job (I have even heard of cases where people bribed officials to get the job). Private employees on the other hand demand greater salaries just to be on par with government employees (whose salary + perks are far greater than private employees salary). Apart from that, a Government employee cannot be prematurely terminated (even if s/he is lazy) unless s/he has committed a grave crime.


I didn't say salaries were directly comparable. Check back with me in 10 years, we'll see which salaries rose faster than others.


Well the tech salary a decade ago was slightly greater than government employees. Today, it is again slightly greater than government employees. According to your logic there should have been great disparity between salaries over a decade. It is not so.

In that period of 10 years, the government employees had 3 payscale revisions with each revision bringing them almost on par with the average salary of private employees. I don't see that trend stopping anytime soon. 10 years from now, government employee salary will again be almost on par with average salary of private employees.

So whatever you try to say it won't change the fact. Government jobs are stable (You can't be fired as easily. You will be transferred instead), you get freebies that you would never get as a private employee and not to mention post-retirement support from the government. You get subsidized land rates, cheaper home loans through your own co-operative society (for example: google "ISRO Layout" which was formed only for ISRO employees). All those employees got the land at very cheap rates. Today it is prime land worth close to half a million dollars (See: http://www.99acres.com/residential-land-plot-for-sale-in-isr...). When they bought the land, they just had to pay a few thousand dollars. Try buying land in India as a private employee and you'll see your hard earned savings vaporizing in thin air.


>> India's government is subsidizing these rockets

What do you mean by subsidizing rockets? Launch costs are to be borne by customer, not Indian government.





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