The evidence is likely in the data housed by Y Combinator, 500 Startups, and others in their market. Chart the statistical mean valuation of each cohort by year since graduation and see if that mean is changing. If Evans is correct, the mean should be declining for each successive cohort.
Alternatively, since the number of funded startups seems to be increasing, you may prefer to look at total valuation over time since graduation. Even if the mean is decreasing, the total number of 'successful' startups may be increasing and no 'end' is signaled.
I'm not convinced that 'there are no good startup ideas left in this technology era' because the big winners are all black swans. By definition, they defy conventional wisdom.
I’m not convinced that the dominant YC companies looked obviously dominant at their early stages; they only seem dominant in retrospect.
As for why the giant companies at YC are still the dominant winners, it’s because the winners just keep growing. We don’t have a sense of scale; when Airbnb was a $500m company it was YC’s poster child. Now Airbnb is worth many billion dollars, and of course it still is the poster child, while companies like LendUp are valued at $500m but are not even talked about.
It’s not that because YC and startups are less successful, it’s that some are so incredibly successful you stop paying attention to the successful ones.
If the measure is valuations coming out of YC, Airbnb raised at a $3m valuation. A lot of YC companies raised $3m at a $14m+ valuation, but that’s more an indication of the market than of the likelihood of success of those companies.
I think there is something to the notion that we have for the time exhausted the low-hanging fruit produced by smartphone market penetration. There are still plenty of good and potentially extremely lucrative startup ideas, but the untapped market potential will not come from taking advantage of mobile alone.
Yet another way to analyze the situation is to look how big successful startups grow before they sell to one of the big ones, and how many of them are sold each year.
Big internet giants can reap the benefits of the startup scene by picking up promising startups early on before the valuations growth. Just hint that they might provide free alternative that is just good enough, might drop the valuation of a startup
When the Microsoft was the scary monster in software business in the 80's, all software startups had to have Microsoft strategy. What to do when MS shows interest. Show them a demo before product is ready and they have several ways to shut it down or buy it off and kill it.
Alternatively, since the number of funded startups seems to be increasing, you may prefer to look at total valuation over time since graduation. Even if the mean is decreasing, the total number of 'successful' startups may be increasing and no 'end' is signaled.
I'm not convinced that 'there are no good startup ideas left in this technology era' because the big winners are all black swans. By definition, they defy conventional wisdom.