"Meanwhile, market research firm Consumer Intelligence Research Partners told The Wall Street Journal that the iPhone 8 and 8 Plus only accounted for 16 percent of iPhone sales in the September quarter, compared to 43 percent for the iPhone 7 and 7 Plus last year. The iPhone 8 models constituted 2.4 percent of iPhones in use one month after shipments began—predecessors managed more than twice that share in the same time period. A survey of carrier stores showed the cheaper iPhone 7 outselling the iPhone 8 in the US and UK, though customers who shop at carrier stores may generally have different preferences than those who buy their phones directly from Apple or from other types of retailers." [1]
Where there is smoke there is fire. Just like most rumors/leaks are true, just how everyone knew Travis was getting canned from Uber weeks before it was announced... all speculation but is rarely wrong. I guess we'll see at the earnings report.
But this is the first time in the history that we haven't heard of the new iPhone flying off the shelfs, about serious back orders, etc...
It would not be a horrible decision for Apple to make, because they embrace a solution to the Innovator's Dilemma.
The Innovator's Dilemma [1] is something that Steve Jobs seemed to have solved. How? Selling one product that cannibalizes sales of another from the same company was A-OK on his watch.
The iPod Mini was a perfectly fine device, yet Apple introduced the iPod Nano at the height of the Mini's popularity. The Nano had less storage [2], but it had solid state flash memory, and therefore was thinner yet.
How'd that work out for Apple? Just fine [3] - they kept about 80% marketshare for the entire life of dedicated digital music players in the market, and that market only went away when Apple brought out a phone so good that it made carrying a dedicated digital music player unnecessary.
Competing with themselves is a key piece in Apple's sustained success in a few markets. The iPhone 8 / X matchup shows they continue to not be afraid to do that with their phone, and I think that's a very healthy thing for their continued success... which also feeds into continued success of their ecosystem, including app developers (like myself!).
> yet Apple introduced the iPod Nano at the height of the Mini's popularity
So they introduced the X right at the iPhone8's peak? I can believe that.
Apple has certainly done that in the past, used to be the best at it but this is the new Apple, not a technology company anymore but a lifestyle company and the product has suffered as a result.
There has been a guess at the reason: people want the X. Thought is after the reviews come out and say it’s not that great, or people try to preorder and get told they have to wait until March they may give up and buy the 8.
We’ve never had a situation where there are two dates the iPhone comes out on before so we don’t know how much thats effecting demand for the 8.
I decided to upgrade to the 8+ from a 6 and it hits nearly all my points except for the slight negative that the form-factor is relatively the same (irrespective of size).
It's a great upgrade so far. The UI is snappy quick, the cameras on the back take amazing photos due to one having both OIS and digital stabilization, and the second also having digital stabilization. The resolution still looks good, etc.
I'm pleased with not needing to wait for the X, especially with the (supposedly) low supply at launch.
Thanks to T-Mobile JUMP, I was able to get the 8 and will get the X next week or as soon as they are avaialable. I presume that many are doing the same
I happily went for an 8, though I had been holding on to my 6+ for awhile. I suspect the X is the way of the future but I'm betting that the first iteration of the tech (including FaceID) might be rough. The better camera and processor in the 8 was justification already. Maybe the 7 is cheaper but may be slowing down with near-future OS upgrades.
I suspect not, since the X will only be available in limited quantities.
My guess is that it was a mistake to not release both at the same time. If they had done that, people that couldn’t immediately order the X are likely to just go ahead and order the 8 if it isn’t that big a deal to them. But now with the 8 having been out for a month, I think a lot more people are likely to just decide to wait. Net result will be a huge drop in sales (though higher ASP).
I guess we’ll see if I’m wrong many months from now, but this just seems like a huge error on their part to me.
> I think a lot more people are likely to just decide to wait.
Not going to happen. I think the X is going trigger its own super cycle. People who have the 6s are waiting for it along with people who have 7 and normally would have waited. The only question is if Apple can make enough phones. They gave themselves an extra month to build supply so we'll see. Current rumors are they are already shifting iPhone 8 production over the iPhone X. My guess is every X made for the next 6 mos. (maybe more?) will be sold before it even comes off the assembly line.
You agree with me, but I don't think you realize it. I absolutely agree that many people with the iPhone 6 and 7 are likely to hold out for the iPhone X, and that is a serious problem for Apple.
The entire existence of the X is predicated on the fact that it's an ultra-premium phone that they can only manufacture in limited quantities — quantities that would not be able to match expected demand for this generation of iPhone. If demand for the iPhone 8 is lagging and they literally cannot manufacture the iPhone X fast enough (even having shifted production away from the iPhone 8), the iPhone X may end up being a tactical disaster for Apple, even if every single one of them is spoken for the moment it leaves the assembly line.
Apple might only be able to manufacture enough iPhone Xs to satisfy 20% of projected demand for this generation. Shifting production capacity around doesn't help much if their supply of critical components is limited (e.g., OLED displays). If they were expecting the iPhone 8 to satisfy the remaining 80% of demand but half of potential iPhone 8 buyers decide to simply wait it out, this could be an absolutely disastrous year for Apple even if their ASP shoots up by a few hundred dollars.
I understand your point, but I'm not sure Apple ever presumed more iPhone8s would sell over the X.
Rumors are that the early manufacturing issues were around one of the face recognition modules, but those issues have since been fixed. Apple knows supply chain, they know how to get millions of units made, and I think they get it done. I'll make a bold HN prediction ;) and say the iPhone X will be the best selling item over Christmas and the best selling iPhone of all time.
I sincerely hope you're right, even though I fear that I am! We'll likely know in 6 months time.
That said, why do you think they spent so much effort to develop, manufacture, and release the iPhone 8 if they projected that they would be able to ramp up production enough to satisfy demand for the X within a reasonable time-frame Everything I've seen points to the X being their attempt at making a phone that they simply wouldn't be able to manufacture at typical iPhone scale. So if not that, then what was the strategy behind the 8/X split?
Good question. Another part of that question is why still sell the 7 or 6s at all? I think what we are seeing is Apple slowly filling all of the price points. There is a large group of people who want the latest, but also a group who traditionally were priced out of iPhones.
A question I really want answered is what will they call next years phone? Will they have 9 and XI? :P
