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The Only Metric That Matters: How many are really using your product? (2017) (greylock.com)
94 points by fagnerbrack on Oct 8, 2018 | hide | past | favorite | 37 comments



I guess 4chan is one of the most valuable tech startups of the last decade or two.

Or maybe there are other metrics that matter.


4chan is a fantastic way to see where opinion will go in the future in my opinion.

4chan is very contrarian, usually against the leading opinion. The narratives discussed in its boards usually slowly starts to influence more mainstream targets, starting with reddit, 9gag equivalents, meme, eventually Facebook until it becomes mainstream enough, leading 4chan to abandon it and switch sides.

4chan used to be quite liberal, a long time ago, then the "mainstream" opinion went to liberal. In the last few years 4chan became very conservative (/pol/ especially) and convervative & reactionary movements are now what they are, growing in Europe, trump got elected, etc.

Now, slighly, you can see 4chan moving away from strong conservative & reactionist views to a more low-key liberal view, again. /pol/ opinions start to get rejected or mocked by other boards, people are bored with the constant alt-right spam and I believe this will leak into mainstream media in few years, that will be the next turn in mainstream opinion.


Don't you think you're giving 4Chan a little too much credit for the phenomenon you're describing here? It's likely that 4Chan acts as a haven for the fringes (which are always changing) but claiming 4Chan has a direct and predictable impact on public opinion globally is a bit of a stretch.

Don't get me wrong, I am well aware of 4Chan's influence on internet culture and how things go viral by the will of 4Chan. But even still I think you're ascribing 4Chan a little too much credit here.


I don't believe 4chan is "moving" all the opinion by itself, it's just reflecting the contrarian's opinion and has some influence which expose their opinion to other more mainstream groups


The post didn't say anything about "value" in terms of money

good enough to raise money, or good enough to keep working on a feature or product, or good enough to believe the product will grow into something much bigger someday.

In the last sense, 4chan is probably in the top 10 of websites that have impacted the web/world the greatest over the last 15 years.


I would absolutely say the top. They started meme culture, which has absolutely taken over most of the social media sites.

/pol/ started the extreme Trump support, and made supporting him fun and memey, ultimately leading to /r/The_Donald, and his eventual election to POTUS. That has had quite a large effect on the world.

They've done gobs and gobs of things related to VG, hoaxes, cultural obstruction, etc.

They are quite influential, just not in the way we typically think about influence.


Actually, the goons at somethingawful.com were doing that long before 4chan, and 4chan itself is a copycat of the japanese 2ch forums. They certainly did lead the way with all that stuff later on, but I'm sure there was a lot of cross-pollination by that point, and I doubt somethingawful can take credit as being the first, either.


I didn't mean they originated the type of environment, but that they are the most influential at creating a real widespread culture and propagating that culture to the wider internet. Goons tended to just be total assholes to specific targets, or organizing things within some videogames (Eve Online, etc.)


4chan's influence on internet culture is huge.

/r9k/ played a big role in the whole incel thing, Elliot Rogers was treated as a sort of deity there before he went on a rampage.

Are there any serious, in-depth studies, stories or books or whatever about 4chan? I feel like politically and culturally, 4chan is one of the most important sites on the internet. I'd like to read more on its influence


>Are there any serious, in-depth studies, stories or books or whatever about 4chan? I feel like politically and culturally, 4chan is one of the most important sites on the internet. I'd like to read more on its influence

https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/why-we-cant-have-nice-things

I'm friends with the author and we were pretty close with when she was writing this. She would tell me about her research, which involved a lot of lurking on 4chan and talking with people there in an official journalistic capacity. I haven't read the book, but it might be worth a peek. She was very much interested in not dismissing it as sociopathic boy behavior, but in understanding what drives intelligent people to troll.


> /r9k/ played a big role in the whole incel thing, Elliot Rogers was treated as a sort of deity there before he went on a rampage.

I'm pretty sure this only started afterwards, but I could be wrong. There are histories of 4chan, but they are usually incomplete since the number of users who kept track of things all the way from the beginning are few.


I was on /r9k/ before what he did. He was definitely on their radar, and there were nearly weekly discussions on him.

After the rampage he definitely got a lot more attention, but he definitely had a strong presence before.


I'd be interested in this as well.

http://tanasinn.info/wiki/Complete_History_of_4chan appears to be a (small) stab in that direction


> in the top 10 of websites that have impacted the web

But is that impact positive? If 4chan disappeared overnight, would anybody care?

Malaria has a huge impact on the world too, but I think we'd be better off without it.


> If 4chan disappeared overnight, would anybody care?

Probably the people that use 4chan.


If I could only pick one metric for a business, I'd go with net revenue. Otherwise it's an expensive hobby.


Not necessarily. In my opinion, core metric should be a proxy for the value the product provides. For example, for us at https://ouraring.com, people buy the ring before using the product.

Tracking revenue only would not reveal problems in the long-term benefit of the product - it would be more like a proxy for marketing actions, not for the core product benefit.


From another wearable founder [1] to you, congrats on making a great product! I'm wearing the new steel Oura right now. Although the firmware update this week broke it for me on android :(

Still my favorite heart-rate enabled wearable out there!

[1] https://pavlok.com


Thanks! (I’m CTO, SW at Oura, but not an Oura founder).

New firmware and Android release coming soon that likely will help with your issue


But the parent was picking one metric to measure the health of a business, not a product. If you choose to measure the health of your business by the quality of your product, aren't you just creating a potentially misleading proxy? Good products hardly guarantee the success of a business.


How you track that value?


Like most business talk on HN, this is about YC-style startups that are expected to lose a lot of money up front in exchange for a ticket in a lottery where the winner is the next Facebook.


Good point. And the fact that it's posted by a VC might have something to do with the content of the advice.


Net revenue CHANGE might be the one metric that makes sense.

The reason to track any metric is to know if you should continue, stop, or go all-in. If you are flatlining - or going down - that's a HUGE sign to quit. If you have steady growth, easy as she goes. Explosive growth, you might want to double down.


Revenue is a reflection of market value, not an intrinsic measurement. Measuring the unit economics should capture more of the intrinsic metrics that generate revenue. This would then be the essence of a company's North star metric.


Then you must love Uber, since you only care about revenue and not costs.


Net revenue often refers to net profit, meaning revenue minus expenses.


I guess YouTube, Twitter, and Facebook are expensive hobbies? They not only didn't make money, but literally lost millions for years.


Of those 3, YouTube might actually be a very expensive hobby. It is purported to still be unprofitable.


it depends. Are you raising the chicken for egg or meat? Egg is about sustainability... meat is about growth (very fast)...


Did you read TFA?

This is for pre-revenue companies. The expectation is that se will turn into revenue in many tech business models. Certainly for the type where you have to capture a dominant fraction of users to get the hockey stick curve.


This whole time I thought it was Profit. Stupid me.


> This whole time I thought it was Profit. Stupid me.

You could be profitable with 1 user that pays way more than the rest (e.g. the only "business plan" user, or an user that use the application more than the others on a usage-based plan). If losing that customer means going out of business than the company is not healthy.


Of course that is a possibility.

I don't think you should do it that way though.

It's better to have 100 customers, each responsible for 1% of your income.

Source: self


Still much healthier than the company next door, that doesn't have the user who keeps the accounts in the black.


In this way you could be profitable after only 1 month or 10 years, if 1 month that's interesting.


Hmm is it one in ten searches that target Wikipedia?




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