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It might make a little more sense with the numbers. WinFall was a typical lottery game where you choose 6 of 46 numbers[1]. As with most lottery games, there is a jackpot payout but there are also payouts for matching 3, 4, and 5 of the numbers. The odds breakdown goes like this[2]:

  Result | Odds
  -------------
  6 of 6 | 1 in 9,366,819
  5 of 6 | 1 in 39028.41
  4 of 6 | 1 in 800.58
  3 of 6 | 1 in 47.40
  2 of 6 | 1 in 6.83
The issue with WinFall is that when the jackpot increased past $5MM, the expected value of the non-jackpot winnings becomes favorable to the player. I.e. a 5-of-6 matching ticket might normally yield $4,000 but may yield >$20,000 for a "Roll-down" game. So if you go out and buy 200,000 tickets for the roll-down game (assuming all tickets are different and numbers are selected at random), you should expect to have 5 5-of-6 tickets, 250 4-of-6 tickets, 4,219 3-of-6 tickets, and 29,283 2-of-6 tickets. The combined winnings of all of those tickets makes it profitable.

[1]: https://www.mass.gov/files/documents/2016/08/vv/lottery-cash...

[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lottery_mathematics



This is what I was looking for! Thanks.


so in each game the money that is not won is collected in the pool until the pool is bigger than the overall cost for all tickets?

and in other games this doesn't work because they are 'winner-takes-all'?




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