The reason why tech has done so well in the past 10 years is partially due to luck. While investment dollars continued to pile up post-2008, tech was one industry who had recently shown really impressive returns. As such, that's where the dollars flowed.
My concern is what happens when a few of those unicorns fail (e.g. Uber)? If sentiment shifts enough, you might see tech suddenly become the ugly duckling. Companies that in reality are doing reasonably well will be painted with the same brush.
When people start to see Uber failing and other unicorns struggling, it just become a self-fulfilling prophecy - "I knew a recession was coming". People get risk adverse, company's stop hiring and it spreads to the economy as a whole.
Until every competitor leap frogs them. Everyone's running up a down escalator.
If uber just keeps the lights on, they will not maintain their stronghold on ridesharing, let alone be the last to market for the next generation of mobility that will replace their current product. Even Facebook goes out of fashion - that's why they bought Instagram and WhatsApp.
IMO, we’ve reached the diffusion limit of innovation in ridesharing. Autonomous is a pipe dream and in a recession, human drivers will be cheap.
Uber and Lyft lose money because they’re over-hiring talent and they’re consolidating their monopolies via marketing/market share wars. When the bubble pops, people are going to stick to MS and Apple - they’re not going to jump to Amiga or BeOS.
The reason why tech has done so well in the past 10 years is partially due to luck. While investment dollars continued to pile up post-2008, tech was one industry who had recently shown really impressive returns. As such, that's where the dollars flowed.
My concern is what happens when a few of those unicorns fail (e.g. Uber)? If sentiment shifts enough, you might see tech suddenly become the ugly duckling. Companies that in reality are doing reasonably well will be painted with the same brush.
When people start to see Uber failing and other unicorns struggling, it just become a self-fulfilling prophecy - "I knew a recession was coming". People get risk adverse, company's stop hiring and it spreads to the economy as a whole.