Epidemiology is not putting numbers in excel and running a formula to generate a chart. Which seems like what half the world is doing now. US has already the same number of cases that Italy had one week ago when it had 4000 deaths (only 500 for US at this point). So some data is wrong and you can't model every country in the world based on data that is just plain misleading (Italy). Median age of tested people in Italy is 13.3 years higher than the general population median age, in Germany, the difference is just 0.7. Stop treating Italy as being the only point of truth and other countries (like Germany) like the anomaly.