Hacker Newsnew | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submitlogin

Yes, all my figures above are Case Fatality Rate (CFR) and not Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), which includes people with mild or no symptoms. It's much harder to estimate the latter unless one conducts antibody tests on a sufficient sample of a population. South Korea's extensive testing program should bring their two figures closer than those of other countries.

Credible estimates of IFR from noted epidemiologists I've seen are around 1%, assuming that the healthcare system still functions, and much higher otherwise.

COVID-19's CFR & IFR might not even be the biggest problem. High rate of hospitalization and broken healthcare system, with all their ramifications, could be considered even worse.



IFR early estimates from Wuhan are at 0.04-0.12%:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022434v...


There is no real consensus regarding IFR yet. I think the best data we have is from Diamond Princess, which is at least 10/712 or ~1.4% and may go up a bit from unresolved 15 serious/critical cases and 100 more active cases. The population there is older, but also have good care.

If the Diamond Princess age group represents just 20% of a population (they are not all elderly), population IFR must be >= 1.4%/5 = 0.28% and likely higher. 0.28% is above the IFR upper range from the paper in your comment.

“Estimated fatality ratio for infections 1%

Estimated CFR for travellers outside mainland China (mix severe & milder cases) 1%-5%

Estimated CFR for detected cases in Hubei (severe cases) 18%”

By the MRC center at Imperial College: https://twitter.com/MRC_Outbreak/status/1226765905306234881?...




Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: