> In most cases there is a large margin of error built into the 4% "safe withdrawal rate"
I don't think that's the case if you're retiring early. The 4% withdrawal rate was based on a 30 year retirement. You need to go a bit lower if you want to have minimal risk of running out of money for a much longer horizon.
Certainly, but with their example of retiring at 40, you have an 8.5% chance of going broke before you die and a 3.4% chance of going broke before you even reach a normal retirement age.
That's a much higher level of risk than I would accept.
I don't think that's the case if you're retiring early. The 4% withdrawal rate was based on a 30 year retirement. You need to go a bit lower if you want to have minimal risk of running out of money for a much longer horizon.