>1. It was statistically extremely likely a virus like COVID would come along soon, and models have predicted such viruses arising naturally for a long time.
Yes, been seeing these predictions for a long time.
>It is at the same time perfectly possible it was engineered.
Occams razor clearly indicates it was engineered at this point. We have had years to prove it was zoonotic, it's not.
>It is a plain stupid move, politically, to outwardly entertain the idea that COVID was engineered - unless you've got proof so damning not even China could ignore it. Unlikely to exist. And even then it is only going to score you a few feel-good points with the plebeians at home.
Not sure I agree with this point. There's a wide gap at this point between 'engineered to release and attack the world' and 'lab leak because they were incompetent.' Which is exactly what was already established. Many sources clearly indicated they werent following basic safety procedures at that lab.
>Either possibility has no impact at all on shorter term decision making. It is stupid to burden people whose immediate goal it is to save lives with even more political minefields they have to navigate.
On the contrary. They cannot do their job effectively without doing exactly this. If we ignored reality like we did, they now will react inappropriately. Which is what happened.
> Occams razor clearly indicates it was engineered at this point. We have had years to prove it was zoonotic, it's not.
You and I have very different ideas of what constitutes a proof. Failure to prove A does not imply ¬A and how/if Occam's razor should be applied here is an open debate.
> > It is a plain stupid move, politically, to outwardly entertain the idea that COVID was engineered - unless you've got proof so damning not even China could ignore it. Unlikely to exist. And even then it is only going to score you a few feel-good points with the plebeians at home.
> Not sure I agree with this point. There's a wide gap at this point between 'engineered to release and attack the world' and 'lab leak because they were incompetent.' Which is exactly what was already established. Many sources clearly indicated they werent following basic safety procedures at that lab.
This is not addressing the paragraph you quoted at all. Was this supposed to address something else?
> On the contrary. They cannot do their job effectively without doing exactly this. If we ignored reality like we did, they now will react inappropriately. Which is what happened.
This sounds to me like you believe "people saving lives" is referring to Fauci and colleagues. It's referring to the tens of thousands of researchers and doctors sharing data on treatment, studies, and tracking the evolution of the virus and its variants around the globe. Fauci's job is to enable them to do their work, not make it harder. There is a very real threat that if accusations were levied against China on the political stage, cooperation would cease or become more complicated. Remember that China comprises about one fifth of the world's population.
Is it really a mistake to forego an opportunity to gloat and score some cheap political points at home, swallow some pride, contain the urge to point fingers, whatever it is, to save lives? And that's not even considering other ramifications. Just because you believe someone fucked up does not mean it serves to immediately rub their face in it.
Yes, been seeing these predictions for a long time.
>It is at the same time perfectly possible it was engineered.
Occams razor clearly indicates it was engineered at this point. We have had years to prove it was zoonotic, it's not.
>It is a plain stupid move, politically, to outwardly entertain the idea that COVID was engineered - unless you've got proof so damning not even China could ignore it. Unlikely to exist. And even then it is only going to score you a few feel-good points with the plebeians at home.
Not sure I agree with this point. There's a wide gap at this point between 'engineered to release and attack the world' and 'lab leak because they were incompetent.' Which is exactly what was already established. Many sources clearly indicated they werent following basic safety procedures at that lab.
>Either possibility has no impact at all on shorter term decision making. It is stupid to burden people whose immediate goal it is to save lives with even more political minefields they have to navigate.
On the contrary. They cannot do their job effectively without doing exactly this. If we ignored reality like we did, they now will react inappropriately. Which is what happened.