Don't know, but I really wish they are wrong and the Russians are right in their claims that the West is "hysterical". So far all the evidence points towards preparations for an invasion and failure to recognise it as such is just wishful thinking. If they were only amassing troops, it could have been an exercise, but when mobile hospitals start to appear near a conflict area, it means preparations for war. Hopefully this will end like the Russo-Georgian war. Similar military effectives were involved on the Russian part then. To get a better view on this, I'd read what Pavel Felgenhauer has to say about this. He was right in his prediction that Russia was going to attack Georgia in August 2008.

https://jamestown.org/analyst/pavel-felgenhauer/