I think that you'll learn that besides haters, nobody cares about the failures. Or hit rate. Only about the successes. And Elon's had such huge ones that he can keep trying for more.
He made some electric cars. They're pretty cool when they're not trying to murder. And some low-orbit satellite internet that should help connect some remote areas. The successes are genuinely massively overstated.
He's a marketer, and a good one. A P.T. Barnum type.
Absolutely, about 10% of the number that Toyota makes every year - a company valued at $300B (vs. Tesla's $900B). They're cool cars, when they're not trying to murder. Electric cars aren't a step-change for humanity. They're an incremental improvement.
Especially at the moment when a $20,000 battery replacement awaits Tesla owners at the 8 year mark - and in places that are primarily coal-powered, the CO2 break-even is around year 6. [1]
Good thing power isn’t primarily coal powered in most of the US ;-) In CA, that’s a total non-issue, for example.
No argument that their valuation has gotten way ahead of where they are, but the thesis is probably that it doesn’t take too many years of doublings to 10x, and companies that appear likely to decline take a significant discount to even what their current production would imply, because shareholdings are a claim on future earnings, not just where they are. Toyota really whiffed with its focus on hydrogen, frankly.
No. They hadn’t even gotten the hand-built roadster working properly before he took over (iirc the two speed transmission was still shredding itself before they switched to single speed), let alone launching the Model S, X, 3, Y, and then scaling up the manufacturing (the real hard part). Credit to them for the idea and the initial prototypes - the idea that EVs could not only be decent cars that people could stomach, but actually lustworthy sports cars that hold their own with the best ICE cars was key to their success, and it was the founders’. But the company building and keeping it alive was solidly Musk.
Easy to build a company out of a genius product/IP some other intelligent team built. I grant that Elon is a decent salesman (even though all the false promises are chipping away at that title), I haven't seen proof of much else.
>Easy to build a company out of a genius product/IP some other intelligent team built.
Not at all true, especially when it comes to heavy manufacturing in a very well established industry. And the vast majority of the significant R&D came after Musk took over.
You can give him credit for pulling off some amazing feats and still think he's an asshole, those aren't mutually exclusive.
>And the vast majority of the significant R&D came after Musk took over.
I dont agree with this opinion. I think the most "significant" R&D was done by the original founders judging by their claimed timeline of how the product was developed.
Reusable rocket is a pretty huge game-changer. It is something that was quite already possible in earlier decades, but there was no appetite to do that because of economics (from '80s to 2010, Soviet Union fell and American Space sector was gutted into cost-plus pork barrel grant of jobs to various states).
SpaceX is the first success of NewSpace, and the revolutionary cost-saving of Falcon 9 seems to continue with Starship, which is 100% reusable, unlike F9.
Not really. You don't actually get much benefit by re-using the entirety of the rocket, which is why it's a non-goal for most programs. Even according to their own numbers, they expect fully reusable rockets to end up being about 10% less expensive than disposable rockets. ... if they actually manage to get there because so far, they're more expensive. Despite Elon's claims of 100X improvements.
