I would be shocked if VR/metaverse does not massively grow within the next 10 years. I think the headsets alone will continue to get massively better which will convert most of humanity, just like how much better iPhones got since the first one. In fact, I would bet anything on the foregoing, as I have near total confidence in that aspect.
It’s much harder to figure out which companies will profit off of that, so it’s certainly possible Meta will miss. But they have a leader with a vision, and are pouring more money into this than any other major player. Will that be enough? Who knows. But I think it’s a mistake to count them out so early in the process, when they are the ones putting R&D into this.
In my mind, it’s like starting an auto company right when cars arrive and people are still skeptical of them, and being the company to pour the most money into developing them. That’s who you want to bet against?
Taxes and moderation are considerations, sure, and may backfire partly, but I think the users will go where the tech is. Just like people buy iPhones not withstanding the cost, moderation, App Store tax, etc, because the iPhone is what users want. If Meta makes an excellent headset and software platform, people will use it. Most people don’t care about the things HN cares about (like App Store fees).
I am just curious as to what data suggests this is going to be a hugely popular thing. In my mind there are two examples of recent products that were on the same lines... Second Life and 3D TVs. Both were unsuccessful.
I'm just not seeing where the insight comes from that this is something people will want on a huge scale. Even if you solve the current problems of the headsets being painful to wear over long periods. I just don't think people want their attention to be hijacked.
> I think the headsets alone will continue to get massively better which will convert most of humanity
How will it get better? The only way it can meaningfully get better is if it disappeared.
The problem with the current state of VR is not the software, the app store or moderation, it is the form factor and the ergonomics.
Very few people want to strap on a giant heated helmet to their face and experience the eye strain associated with watching a very bright light from a point blank distance through lenses that need to be adjusted perfectly every time. It is just too much of a hassle.
A neuralink-type chip, if at all feasible, is a much more promising approach.
You are ignoring that plenty of people, especially young people, already tolerate headsets enough to spend many hours wearing them.
Making the headsets much much lighter, less hot, wireless, better optics, higher res, higher refresh rates, etc., will improve the experience massively.
Look into what is already public: companies are exploring eye tracking, varifocal lenses (so your eyes are not always looking at the same focal plane), etc.
You can even compare the Index versus the Quest 2 to see what a difference a better screen can make.
People already deal with eye strain by staring at a bright screen from a fixed distance for most of their life.
Neural link, sure, eventually. For now, if you don’t think ten years of progress won’t lead to hundreds of millions of devices sold, well, wait and see.
All the parts and pieces to make the iPhone were available in the 2000s.
I’m not so sure about VR. It’s a huge power hog. Either the battery life would be limited or you’d need to carry around a backpack to keep it running or it would stay at your desk with more wires in your head than a William Gibson protagonist.
I could see some limited use cases for VR, like training and education. But as a replacement of the world in the way smartphones have been? I just don’t get how that will be physically/technologically possible.
But if there’s evidence to the contrary believe me I would love to change my mind.
To be clear, I don't think most people will live in VR for all of their waking life (although some will).
But I do think VR has the potential to be "huge" like cellphones, in the way that nearly every kid in the world has a headset, and spends hours of time in there each day. I think it can eat up a ton of time currently spent on movies, TV, video games, socializing in places like Minecraft or Roblox, concerts, sports games, etc. The average person spends way too much time watching TV for example, but if every kid in the world wants to spend 2 hours per day in VR instead of watching TV, that will be an enormous TAM notwithstanding that people won't want to literally live in VR with all day battery life. Although there will always be outliers, and I think there will be many people that will easily choose to spend 8 hours + per day in VR.
And even currently, the Quest 2 provides hours of battery life without wires, which will only continue to improve.
How old are you by the way? Today phones last nearly all day, but people used to carry around multiple phones for their batteries and swap them out. IF they are at home, they could do the same with VR until the battery life improves.
I would be shocked if VR/metaverse does not massively grow within the next 10 years. I think the headsets alone will continue to get massively better which will convert most of humanity, just like how much better iPhones got since the first one. In fact, I would bet anything on the foregoing, as I have near total confidence in that aspect.
It’s much harder to figure out which companies will profit off of that, so it’s certainly possible Meta will miss. But they have a leader with a vision, and are pouring more money into this than any other major player. Will that be enough? Who knows. But I think it’s a mistake to count them out so early in the process, when they are the ones putting R&D into this.
In my mind, it’s like starting an auto company right when cars arrive and people are still skeptical of them, and being the company to pour the most money into developing them. That’s who you want to bet against?
Taxes and moderation are considerations, sure, and may backfire partly, but I think the users will go where the tech is. Just like people buy iPhones not withstanding the cost, moderation, App Store tax, etc, because the iPhone is what users want. If Meta makes an excellent headset and software platform, people will use it. Most people don’t care about the things HN cares about (like App Store fees).