I am by no means an expert in the valuation of companies, but I understand primary school level math.
If Atalssian has a revenue (not profit, revenue) of $2.95 billion, how on earth can the stock market capitalization be $162 billion? If that was the profit, there would be a yearly interest rate of 2% on the stock value, which is pretty good in today's financial market conditions, but it is the revenue of a 20 years old company that never had a positive PE. What is the expectation of the market? A new killer product? Total dominantion of the issue tracker market (which btw also includes Github"? I do not get it.
I don't think it's crazy. You're valuing the company as a mature dividend paying company - one that is paying out to share holders the profits it makes, not investing further to grow. But that's not a reasonable way to value Atlassian, they're a growth company.
I think the expectation of the market is pretty simple, Atlassian grow by 30%+ YoY for the foreseeable future, which isn't totally unreasonable, and that their costs aren't going to scale with that growth because they're a software business.
If they grow 30% YoY for the next 5 years they'll be pulling in $10Bn in revenue, and maybe sales scale proportionally so call that 25% of revenue, R&D stays more or less flat at $1Bn - let's double it to $2Bn to be generous, Administrative stays fairly nominal at 500m. Hey presto, you've got a company with a tidy $5Bn annual profit. Discount that back to todays prices and that doesn't sound crazy. And all that is assuming is that Atlassian is fully matured in 5 years and not still growing.
To be clear, this is all just very hand wavey numbers, but it's not totally incredible.
If Atalssian has a revenue (not profit, revenue) of $2.95 billion, how on earth can the stock market capitalization be $162 billion? If that was the profit, there would be a yearly interest rate of 2% on the stock value, which is pretty good in today's financial market conditions, but it is the revenue of a 20 years old company that never had a positive PE. What is the expectation of the market? A new killer product? Total dominantion of the issue tracker market (which btw also includes Github"? I do not get it.