It's plausible people might not notice traffic deaths but this assumes there is absolutely no correlation with general driving experience and road safety which is unlikely. Also, this is thousands of extra deaths and on a year over year basis that happened since 2020 when it had been trending down previously so I think it's quite plausible that people notice and it happened rapidly. But that is just one particular statistic the NHTSA published to extrapolate from. There is an older study showing an increase in speeding incidents in 2020.[1] This is a 50% increase which seems likely to be noticeable although this study only counted a short period in one location. The problem with a lot of the statistics besides NHTSA traffic fatality I have tracked is they tend to be specific to one area and not nationwide. But, we also know speeding is associated with higher traffic fatality per the NHTSA.
I kind of suspect you are just looking to downplay the statistics but there is another metric that can be used except it is not tracked by the NHTSA and could be biased. But a quick search for "increase in road rage incidents" will show that a number of states have had this issue since 2020. Unfortunately, there is a non profit that may have a bias collecting the data but it has been reported on.[2] Basically road rage murders increased a lot in 2021 and 2020 and all over the country it seems. This is not what is tracked by the NHTSA since these are murders as far as I can tell. To me it seems like quite a stretch that there can be increases in road rage incidents which are associated with speeding and aggressive driving and that there is a corresponding unnoticeable decline in driver etiquette. It's likely quite noticeable.
As I said, I am following this issue because I noticed a change but I don't think there is going to be any easy way to prove anything given how long it takes to collect statistics and a lot of what can provide proof is not recorded in any usable way. I also said the issue is well documented and you can find a lot from disparate sources.
> Basically road rage murders increased a lot in 2021 and 2020 and all over the country it seems.
These incidents are a tiny tiny fraction of all non-accidental injuries or unnatural deaths occurring. Yes it went up, yes you should pay attention and fix it if reasonably possible. But again: keep it in perspective. Singling out a metric that went up while, say, the total burden of disease (on the scale of comparing to other countries and across decades) essentially stayed the same[1] and... okay honestly I'm having trouble finding a metric where the USA improved over the last years (or, if 2021+ data is not yet available, even the last decade). Still, not sure that means things are suddenly bad. OP's sentiment and a lot of this thread is that the world is going to shit, which is objectively not true if the USA maintains its quality of life and not-so-wealthy/healthy places are continuously improving.
ah ok not sure about going to shit, I probably wouldn't say that, so I don't agree with OP that things have gone to shit. I don't feel that way. I do think road safety worsened slightly but it's not Mad Max bad and I think eventually it will revert to the mean hopefully.
Yes, it's a small increase in a long term decline of road deaths and I haven't seen second half of 2022 data yet but my last understanding was that traffic fatality may have peaked in 2022, idk. It's too early to tell and people might not care a year from now if things improve. I should have been more clear about what my position was because yes a lot of things worsened and are much higher concerns than road safety and it's definitely not a major issue but I just happen to be following it. It's just a temporary thing I imagine. But I do want to warn people just to be slightly more careful.
But I am fascinated by some of the data because there has never been a lockdown before and I am curious if it affected driving. It could have implications for traffic safety, road design, and traffic shaping. I should've avoided any other implication.
I kind of suspect you are just looking to downplay the statistics but there is another metric that can be used except it is not tracked by the NHTSA and could be biased. But a quick search for "increase in road rage incidents" will show that a number of states have had this issue since 2020. Unfortunately, there is a non profit that may have a bias collecting the data but it has been reported on.[2] Basically road rage murders increased a lot in 2021 and 2020 and all over the country it seems. This is not what is tracked by the NHTSA since these are murders as far as I can tell. To me it seems like quite a stretch that there can be increases in road rage incidents which are associated with speeding and aggressive driving and that there is a corresponding unnoticeable decline in driver etiquette. It's likely quite noticeable.
As I said, I am following this issue because I noticed a change but I don't think there is going to be any easy way to prove anything given how long it takes to collect statistics and a lot of what can provide proof is not recorded in any usable way. I also said the issue is well documented and you can find a lot from disparate sources.
update: NHTSA launched a campaign to remind drivers not to speed recently. The campaign page has related information and statistics relevant here. https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/nhtsa-launches-new-camp...
[1]: https://www.iihs.org/topics/bibliography/ref/2258
[2]: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/road-rage-shootings-guns-2021/