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What more would it take for google to succeed at something like:

"robot can plant, water and harvest food that only poor laborers from other countries did, replacing whole job categories in agro business along with other things like making blue collar immigration moot"?



Robots becoming 100x cheaper, or humans becoming 100x more expensive.


Unitree sells robot similar to Boston Dynamics Spot for $2700. If you add robotic gripper to it can do things like picking strawberries cheaper than minimum wage worker. Say if robot costs $3500 and minimum wage is $10/hour then robot needs to only complete 43 8-hour shifts over it's lifetime to displace human worker.


That is the basic version. The EDU version which opens more API/interface to the user cost much more. Also training a whole-body (quadruped + robotic arm with gripper) to do something like picking strawberries remains challenging today.


It's challenging but looks like Boston dynamics is able to do that kind of tasks. For instance they have a build in feature for spot with robotic hand that can open a door by turning door handle. And apparently it works with most doors.


That won't work with rain or likely dirt or dust either. They do have a B1 which is shown forging water but it's $100k.

EDIT: page says that's not the real price, but https://www.ground.ghostysky.com/en/product/unitree-b1/ claims 70k€ so who knows.


> Robots becoming 100x cheaper

That is DeepMind succeeding on building robots that can build robots.


Not sure how helpful that would be, I don't think most of the cost of robotics manufacturing is assembly. Precision machining would be part of it, as would actuators and batteries, all of which require their own specialised manufacturing chains that I doubt DeepMind can improve by an order of magnitude. And then of course there's the chips, which are very important and unlikely to drop in cost significantly from anything DeepMind can do. Of course your floor is the cost of materials, which is going to be based on labour and exchange value from mining and refining, particularly of lithium and aluminium, neither of which I think is particularly susceptible to any advances DeepMind is likely to make.

If someone from twenty years in the future appeared in my living room and informed me with certainty that robots are 100x cheaper in 2043 and asked me how that could be true, my first guess would be that there are significant energy breakthroughs making aluminium and lithium much cheaper as raw materials, and that robots took off as a very popular consumer product and are now sold in quantities between 100 million and 1 billion units every year, driving prices down through economies of scale. I'm not certain that would be enough on its own to get prices down that far, but it would be my best guess.




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