"I think AI will probably eliminate almost all future knowledge worker jobs through simple attrition. In 20 years, perhaps 1 human knowledge worker will be doing the work of 100 (measured by todays productivity) augmented by integrated AI in the tools they use."
Yea, I don't think this will happen over the longterm.
I do see worker dislocation in certain sectors though, can't see how LLM's won't substantially shake-up office work especially as Microsoft is already busy building them into the Office Suite.
Which was my point. Knowledge workers (and the types of people who gravitate to knowledge work careers) will be dislocated and what work remains may not be as rewarding both financially and personally to these kind of people. People of course adapt, but would that person sitting on the autism spectrum who can thrive and make exceptional income as a SWE be able to adapt to a less cerebral career? Will there be mentally rewarding work for those displaced? Those are real concerns and a possible butterfly effect of AI.
My hope for my grandchildren is to pursue careers that can weather the automation and AI storm. Becoming a plumber might be literally shit work, but it’s one trade that is AI and automation proof for many years to come.
I would heavily recommend becoming an SWE if they have an inclination for it. It won't be deprecated by AI any time soon and there is still so much work...
AI will become a tool instead of it replacing SWEs. Chances are that software engineer even become more essential through that if AI is integrated in every system.
I disagree, I think SWE will be one of the first careers displaced by AI. There is a whole “jobber” class of lower quality SWEs nowadays who are bright enough to do the job, but just barely. The extra pair of hands we needed to help digitize the world.
Once the bulk of the coding can be offset by AI, you probably just need elite SWEs as the check to the system. The lower quality SWEs that fill that extra pair of hands role that we need now will go away because the code they produce will be of inferior quality to the code that AI will produce. They will be an anti-productive variable to the equation and will be gradually lost to attrition.
Lump of labour fallacy?