There was a really interesting episode of the podcast Hidden Brain last year about using medical data, but with a different approach -- the economist/sociologist Sara Heller did some research into predicting crime using medical data, or, more specifically, data about gunshot wounds.
It turns out, you can predict gunshot victims quite well: They generated a large dataset for Chicago, then produced a list of the top 100 (IIRC) likely victims of gunshot wounds in the next year, and the people on that list had something like a 10% likelihood of being shot in the next year -- a more than 100x increase beyond the average Chicagoan.
Dr. Heller's point, rather than being one about predictive policing in general, was that it's probably more effective to try to prevent people from becoming victims. They're actually running a longitudinal study right now -- Dr. Heller alongside Dr. Christopher Blattman -- looking at methods of preventative, positive intervention to reduce crime. Dr. Blattman has actually run some studies on this in Africa in the past, looking at giving people money, therapy, or a combination thereof, and found pretty impressive impact on reducing future criminal behaviour by giving people a modest monetary infusion alongside social support in the form of therapy and group sessions.
That website is exceptionally biased in its motivations and doesn't give its sources of information. Take anything from it with a grain of salt and please try to identify other sources of information.
It turns out, you can predict gunshot victims quite well: They generated a large dataset for Chicago, then produced a list of the top 100 (IIRC) likely victims of gunshot wounds in the next year, and the people on that list had something like a 10% likelihood of being shot in the next year -- a more than 100x increase beyond the average Chicagoan.
Dr. Heller's point, rather than being one about predictive policing in general, was that it's probably more effective to try to prevent people from becoming victims. They're actually running a longitudinal study right now -- Dr. Heller alongside Dr. Christopher Blattman -- looking at methods of preventative, positive intervention to reduce crime. Dr. Blattman has actually run some studies on this in Africa in the past, looking at giving people money, therapy, or a combination thereof, and found pretty impressive impact on reducing future criminal behaviour by giving people a modest monetary infusion alongside social support in the form of therapy and group sessions.