When we look at the history of technology, most new technologies can take a few decades before they're ready for the mass market. Television was demonstrated in the 1920s, but it wasn't ready for the mass market until the 1950s. If I remember correctly, the light bulb and automobile also took a few decades to come to the mass market.
I think a lot of people are jaded by how fast technology changed between 1980 -> 2010. But, a lot of that is because the technology was easy to learn, understand, and manipulate.
I suspect that AI will take a lot longer to evolve and perfect than the World Wide Web and smartphones.
Yeah, the rate of change since the 1960s has been incredible. I like to think of that as being a direct consequence of inventing an infinitely reconfigurable general purpose calculator :)
I don’t know about LLMs… it might hit a performance peak and stay there, same as CPUs have been 3+ GHz for the past 10 years. Or there might come a breakthrough that will make them incredibly better, or obsolete them. We don’t know! And I find that exciting.
I think a lot of people are jaded by how fast technology changed between 1980 -> 2010. But, a lot of that is because the technology was easy to learn, understand, and manipulate.
I suspect that AI will take a lot longer to evolve and perfect than the World Wide Web and smartphones.