> Baglino’s stock sale coincided with optimism from veteran Tesla investor Ron Baron on CNBC on Thursday. The head of Baron Capital, whose largest position is in Tesla, called the bottom for the stock.

> “It’s going to go up huge. Now is the bottom,” he said …

> “It’s not so exciting to be up 1% in a year when the market is so strong,” he said. “I do look around all the time and see everyone getting rich—and I’m not poor, but I haven’t made a lot of progress over the last three years, so therefore I think it’s like a rubber band—I’m going to catch up again.”

Imagine giving your money to someone writing this line of thinking

Well, he has made billions of dollars of profits for his investors ($45 billion of assets under management and $5 billion personal net worth). He must be doing something right, and they'll continue to give him money because of his track record.

> He must be doing something right

This makes sense. If somebody previously did something right that means they are presently doing something right. For this reason the stock tanking is good in the same way that the stock going up was also good

<cough>Ray Dalio</cough>

"Track record" often looks a lot better because a fund manager got lucky early on, and number goes up. But they were not managing a big fund then. So then they get lots of investors and at the same time regression to the mean happens.

Terrible reasoning. There are endless examples where reasoning like this had dire consequences.

I didn’t say he’s the best investor. I explained that he has made profits in the past, and that’s why people keep giving him money hoping that he’ll continue to do so in the future.

Investment is a risk after all. Besides, there’s also something off-putting about snarky HN comments trying to judge someone’s whole skill set and character by only one angle.

I almost wanted to say “If he’s so dumb and you’re so smart, why don’t you go raise billions and profit like him,” but I won’t because I recognize that things are more complex.

> If he’s so dumb and you’re so smart, why don’t you go raise billions and profit like him,”

Because intelligence is not the driver of success here

> one angle

You can be bullish on Tesla. That’s perfectly fine.

But saying “aw man everyone else is getting richer than me so it’ll probably be my turn next” is humorously bad

He knows how to sell?

He had a choice: sell or get a major tax bill.

It’s overpriced.

Unlike most tech companies, making automobiles is a cyclical, labor, and capital intensive business that is unlikely to produce consistent profits over the long term, which puts the value of it’s earnings far lower than other tech companies. Their is a substantial risk of zero profits or large losses during a downturn. If it had a single digit P/E ratio like virtually every other automaker, the stock price would be substantially lower.

It’s totally reasonable to fully liquidate as it’s not possible to time the market and determine when the peak is and it’s clearly over priced.

However, that doesn’t mean that Tesla will fail or that it’s a bad company. It’s just people have bid it’s stock price up to a crazy level.

We need to know what he put the money into.

Only knowing one side of their trade doesn't tell us anything. A comment like "It's up 25% of his sale price in the few days after he sold" is nonsense unless we know he didn't invest in something else up 25%!

Even in our own investing we should be comparing A versus B - not looking at A alone. And generally most talk about stocks has this problem.

Is someone here that can tell me how it is possible to sell over a million of shares?

Like I'm fairly sure this person didn't log into a web portal looked at his stocks and then pressed the "sell" button and an hour later he has the money in his bank account. Or is it that easy for people like him?

I'd wager that if you have that kind of money in stocks you arrange the sale via a broker. Probably in writing.

Have y'all seen the stock price only 5 days after the $140 low?

Have you seen the number of people giving money to Scientology or the Catholic Church?

It's up 25% of his sale price in the few days after he sold.

Ouch.

Poor guy, he could have made $226M instead of $181M /s