Windows 8 is an interesting release from a historical standpoint. Microsoft has been a long proponent of preserving APIs. Just as Windows95 supported DOS, and WinNT supported Win32 APIs. Windows 8 is a totally different beast. It's a new API, not even .NET, that's built on an existing OS. As such, it is more like Android, which is a mobile phone API built on top of Linux.
In many ways, programmers are discouraged from interacting with existing operating system services. One can't even access database drivers when writing WinRT programs. Everything is managed via web services.
So MS is not in a position of strength:
1. It is not a backwards compatible release (by necessity, due to battery life requirements)
2. It will have to create a market - i.e. ecosystem of developers and consumers
3. It has lackluster record - Windows Phone has little market share, despite being a solid OS
4. It has burned a lot of bridges and karma by abandoning their ethos of supporting old APIs. e.g. Silverlight, Windows Phone 7.5
This means that developers who take a risk with Windows 8 will find that if it tanks, they do not expect the APIs to be maintained in the future. Despite MS baking these WinRT APIs into Windows 8, they represent such a departure from desktop models that you couldn't bring those investments back to the desktop without significant work.
Meanwhile, the iPads are making deep inroads into enterprises and schools. Even if aficionados BYOD use Windows 8, MS will have to play underdogs from now on.
The only problem is - MS no longer know how to act like one.
My prediction? Lackluster adoption, massive layoffs just like HP in the next 20 months.
> Windows 8 is a totally different beast. It's a new API, not even .NET, that's built on an existing OS. As such, it is more like Android, which is a mobile phone API built on top of Linux.
You need to make a distinction between WOA (Windows RT) and Windows 8 on x86. Windows RT is a different beast yes in that developers will only have access to the WinRT API, but no restrictions are in place on the x86 version of Windows 8. Developers still have access to the Win32 API and are NOT discouraged to use it.
The problem I see is that the WinRT API sits side by side with Win32. There is no intermixing.
You'd either program to one or the other. Sure you can run WinRT on the desktop. WinRT is so sandboxed it is worse than virtualizing XP on Windows 7. From a political standpoint, I can see the Windows 8 server people sneering at the team from Windows Mobile who have managed to sneak their toy OS into a heavy duty operating system. They are putting up with these kids for a while, but they will be booted out at the first sign of failure.
I see this as a hedged bet. If WinRT ends up as a market failure, they'll potentially abandon WinRT. After all, it will be like ditching a bit of Windows Mobile code in a proper OS. The whole thing is so cut down that WinRT is best thought of as a presentation layer and little else.
In many ways, programmers are discouraged from interacting with existing operating system services. One can't even access database drivers when writing WinRT programs. Everything is managed via web services.
So MS is not in a position of strength:
1. It is not a backwards compatible release (by necessity, due to battery life requirements)
2. It will have to create a market - i.e. ecosystem of developers and consumers
3. It has lackluster record - Windows Phone has little market share, despite being a solid OS
4. It has burned a lot of bridges and karma by abandoning their ethos of supporting old APIs. e.g. Silverlight, Windows Phone 7.5
This means that developers who take a risk with Windows 8 will find that if it tanks, they do not expect the APIs to be maintained in the future. Despite MS baking these WinRT APIs into Windows 8, they represent such a departure from desktop models that you couldn't bring those investments back to the desktop without significant work.
Meanwhile, the iPads are making deep inroads into enterprises and schools. Even if aficionados BYOD use Windows 8, MS will have to play underdogs from now on.
The only problem is - MS no longer know how to act like one.
My prediction? Lackluster adoption, massive layoffs just like HP in the next 20 months.