"Thus, the relevant analogy is buying one lottery ticket in a huge lottery such as the Powerball or Mega Millions and matching every number to win the jackpot."
I like your analogy, but I think it needs to account for the fact that there are two scenarios in which a single vote can influence an election:
1. If it would have been a tie without that single vote. In this scenario, the single vote breaks the tie.
2. If the candidate that the single vote is to be cast on would have lost by one vote withtout that single vote. In this case, the single vote creates a tie.
The odds of either happening are astronomically long, of course.
I like your analogy, but I think it needs to account for the fact that there are two scenarios in which a single vote can influence an election:
1. If it would have been a tie without that single vote. In this scenario, the single vote breaks the tie.
2. If the candidate that the single vote is to be cast on would have lost by one vote withtout that single vote. In this case, the single vote creates a tie.
The odds of either happening are astronomically long, of course.