In a platform race, in a business where multi-year contracts are typical, and platform lock-in is strong, there is an argument to be made that the first device someone purchases is most important.

What do you mean? Most important in what way? The Samsung Instinct was a failure for Samsung. They did not sell way, the grandparents' friend was one of the few that got one (and like most people, he didn't like it). If that's not the market working, I don't know what is.