Same argument can be somewhat applied to CPUs circa 90s. The growth did stop/stalled in the end.

I think the expectation of ever growing compute is not totally crazy. It will come with lower margins eventually though, and more players in the market. It also might get much more moderate, including from hardware limitations. Efficiency wise h200->b200 isn’t as crazy as a100->h100.

  Same argument can be somewhat applied to CPUs circa 90s. The growth did stop/stalled in the end.

One difference is that the more compute you have, the more work you can do. You can basically run tokens 24/7 building apps or trying to do research or running a massive model in thinking mode.

Would this work once the funds start to dry up and the business has to self sustain, at some point?

Assumption is that business become profitable, and not just break even profitable but profitable at their expected multiples, isn't it?

Not sure if it's profitable but I don't think intelligence can be compared to just CPUs in dotcom.

Given enough compute, you can a very smart LLM to work on any number of things by itself.

With all due respect, do you folks actually think deep and hard about what you write before you do?

I get the impression that you don't. This isn't meant to offend you, since this stuff is really hard to do. But I notice this a lot - wishy washy comments, that lack deep thought.

This place would be better with less posts but more thinking.

When dot com crashed it was similar - compute use didn’t reduce, far from it, it’s just capex crashed to the ground and took 90% of Nasdaq value with it, for a few years.

Stop comparing to dotcom. There’s a big difference between the internet then and the internet now. Ignoring the astounding nature of the AI tech (dotcom isn’t even in the same ballpark), you also have to consider these two things:

1) We didn’t make the world digital native in that era

2) We didn’t connect the whole world to the internet

I agree on the astounding nature of AI but there is also an astounding nature to valuations across the market right now.

WMT is a better example than NVDA.

WMT - seems like their growth is a bit faster now than historically. That may explain their stock price?

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/WMT/walmart/revenu...

The desire for it may be without limit, but the desire to spend money on it definitely has some limitations.

Personally I believe we will see some evidence of tacit collusion as it becomes more obvious the capital investments will not generate any returns (let alone surplus value). The only way to control investor sentiment will be for all big tech firms to collectively lie and present fake progress / wishy washy KPIs on earnings calls.

The people who understand corporate finance, valuation and product development can catch this stuff early on.