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greenfish6
44 days ago
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J.P. Morgan's OpenAI loan is strange
The first example has a miscalculation; if you invest 1k and the EV is 900, then your choice has negative ROI, not positive.
breischl
44 days ago
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He's calculating EV above cost. If you look at the calculation, the first term is -1000 to account for the initial investment. So the final value is tell you that you got back the initial money plus 900 more.
neom
44 days ago
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However, the article is technically inconsistent in framing.
quirino
44 days ago
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The calculation that arrives at 900 has already subtracted the 1000 from the start.
postflopclarity
44 days ago
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it's correct. the EV is 900 after accounting for the 90% probability of -$1000. that's what the first term in the sum is for.
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