I'd doubt that they intend to spend a full trillion. The spend commitment is such that no one else can plausibly outspend them. If you take the position that spend is correlated with outcome - then they are on a positive track to win. The existence of this spend commitment will motivate some market players to exit the market.
I think I agree here. I don't have all the numbers, but I'm under the impression that OpenAI spend is much higher than their competitors, with Meta trailing behind them. I don't think Anthropic or Xai is spending nearly as much as OpenAI, yet ChatGPT performance is not scaling with spend. Their moat seems to be entirely based on having the most users.
