If you take 10-15 minutes to customize the UI it can be pretty damn simple if you want. I'd say those minutes are worth it to avoid a subscription and to support a true OSS stalwart project.
Gimp, maybe not so much[1], but I understand that Krita has improved quite a bit. And regardless of stagnancy, both of these applications will continue to exist long after Affinity gets our-incredible-journeyed.
[1]: (FWIW, I don't know one way or the other. Apologies to any Gimp developers here.)
Gimp actually, finally had their big 3.0 update earlier this year which "modernized" (to ~5 years ago) a lot of the codebase. The UI is mostly the same but it's using much more modern UI components (editing text isn't terrible now, etc.)
Gimp's problem is mostly one of funding and attention, like most OSS projects. But it's never stopped development, which I think is impressive 27 years on.
Imagine where Gimp would be if any company treated it like Valve treats WINE.
I think it's annoying and patronizing. When exporting, I have to use the file browser to pick a directory and filename to save, when all I want to do is overwrite the file I have open.
It's a one-time thing per file while Gimp is open. Subsequent exports can be triggered instantly with Ctrl+E or File -> Export (instead of Export As...)