Looking like 2028-2030 but it's a moving target.

Since we're basically getting flying cars next year at the World Cup, I guess it's going to be after flying cars.

I prefer fusion power as the go-to vapourware technology. It’s been “10-20 years out” for 70 years and counting.

I don’t see any reason to believe that “AGI office workers” will be ready to go by 2030. All signs right now are pointing to a looming plateau in their capabilities.

Fusion has halved the "interval until we get it" on those 50 years. AGI has doubled the "interval until we get it" twice already since 2022.

Those things are not the same kind of vaporware.

Could you name a specific person whose estimate of when we might get AGI has doubled twice since 2022? Or do you mean you found one person with a really short estimate in 2022, another person with a longer one in 2024, and another with a longer one now?

Also, if you compare with 50 years ago, AGI has also (better than) halved the interval experts are commonly predicting since then.

(Of course the experts could turn out to be hilariously wrong, for fusion or AI or both. I just don't think your comparison is anything like apples-to-apples.)

Fusion is always years away because funding has been at or below the minimal "fusion never" levels since the '70s: https://fire.pppl.gov/us_fusion_plan_1976.pdf

Ok Elon.

> Since we're basically getting flying cars next year at the World Cup

That's so funny. Regular people can't hahndle regular cars. Self-driving cars barely handle 2 dimensional space within very specific confines and rules, in good weather. Existing airspace is congested to the point of being problematic in most metro areas around the world.

"Flying cars" might be replacing some private heliopters, maybe. But they aren't going mainstream any time soon.

I also don't really understand what's supposed to be the line between flying car and helicopter.

Does the flying car need to also be street legal on the ground? Does it just not have to look too much like a helicopter?

I think it’s anything in the category of “way more common than a helicopter to the point where normal people use them”.