Exactly this. There were thousands of warnings that the western order conducting arbitrary seizure of treaty-protected deposits held by the outgroup was always a slippery slope to everybody getting hurt, right back to confiscating insured Cypriot bank deposits a decade and a half ago.
But we live in a world where it is considered poor form to expect history qualifications in elected office, so this kind of crash, followed by the long descent, is baked in.
One, Russia’s stuff hasn’t been seized. Europe tried. But, in true form, failed to get its act together.
Two, is the argument really that Trump would be constrained by precedent if Europe and the U.S. got into a situation where seizing the former’s gold comes on the table?
But we live in a world where it is considered poor form to expect history qualifications in elected office, so this kind of crash, followed by the long descent, is baked in.