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>You rarely see anything more than a couple hundred bucks a month. There are notable exceptions, but unfortunately a lot of those notable exceptions are scammy, spammy business models.

I suspect this is largely sampling bias.

I host meetups for indie founders, and several attendees earn their living through solo businesses. When I go to conferences like Microconf, I meet lots more.

The problem with measuring financial success by who posts about it on HN is:

* The more someone is making at their solo business, the less they want to blab about it and attract competitors.

* The people earning at the low end are more desperate for people to see what they're doing so they can pick up new customers, so they're more likely to talk about their work.

* The more successful founders are busier and spend less time posting on HN.



> The more someone is making at their solo business, the less they want to blab about it and attract competitors.

Exactly! And this is why every time I see someone selling a course while bragging about making a lot of money, I know for sure they are _not_ making money.


"It is inconceivable that anyone will divulge a truly effective get-rich scheme for the price of a book. There is ample opportunity to use wealth in this world, and neither I nor my friends, nor anyone else I have ever met, has so much of it that they are interested in putting themselves at a disadvantage by sharing their secrets."

Victor Niederhoffer, The Education of a Speculator


I’ve seen people bragging about making a lot of money selling a course about selling courses. That somehow felt honest.


Well you never know, maybe selling the course is the profitable part?


There are a lot of people out there hawking a lot of different schemes that they say will get you where you want to go. “Build relationships,” they’ll say, or “work smarter, not harder,” or “first, decide what it is you really want.” And it sort of seems like they must know what they’re talking about, because aren’t they successful themselves? Don’t they have trophy spouses and expensive haircuts and mansions on the coast? Surely they’re in possession of some secret system for achieving one’s dreams!

Well, yeah, they’ve got a system. Their system is selling hope to schmucks like you. Their seminars, their self-help books, their crazy diets and exercise plans? That stuff doesn’t help you. It helps them.

This text can currently be found in the blurb for a shirt at https://shirt.woot.com/offers/steamworks-operatica .

It's possible that's where I found it originally, but my memory suggests to me that I found it somewhere else, on a blog, and that the continuation was different.


I have always felt that online courses selling on how to sell online courses are underserved market... You do not hear too much about those, not that I have looked.



A family member of mine has done really well out of Amazon fba. She took someone's course and that got her going. I did the same course but really struggled to get going. I gave up. It wasn't for me.

But yeah I'm guessing the guy selling the course makes more off that than his fba business


So true. The latest rage on IG is "this guy built a trading system on OpenClaw and is now making 10k, comment MONEY and i'll DM you the recipe."

No indy hedgefund algotrader gives away their golden goose, that would crowed out the trade.


> I host meetups for indie founders, and several attendees earn their living through solo businesses. When I go to conferences like Microconf, I meet lots more.

Isn't this also sampling bias?


It for sure is but it's being ised to refute an affirmative assertion, not make it's own assertion.


> It for sure is but it's being ised to refute an affirmative assertion, not make it's own assertion.

To refute assertion you need to claim negation of that assertion, which is assertion in itself, as every negation can be rewritten to become affirmation, and vice versa.


This is not true. Producing a counter example to an assertion refutes the assertion.

While you can certainly argue that such a counter example entails the negation of the original assertion, that is not the same thing as claiming the negation of the assertion.

Putting forth an argument or demonstrating a counterexample is not the same as asserting all of the logical consequences of that argument.


Not really.

> All cats are white.

> All the cats I see are black.

The second statement doesn't actually imply that all cats are black but it does refute that all cats are white. It doesn't make it's own claim about all cats, it just adds an anecdote that doesn't conform to the first statement.


The second statement implies the negation of the first though. So OP is correct assuming the term "claim" includes "implies".

However, the original argument regarding smoking bias is correct of course.


It negates original assertion. There is no difference between assertion and negation in logic.


> successful founders are busier

I thought it was supposed to be "passive".


They are busy sipping martinis on the beach, not working.


>I host meetups for indie founders

Speaking of sampling bias, isn't this like asking a shovel vendor about the success rate of gold prospectors? :)


Honestly, no. They're free meetups.

I don't stand to gain anything by exaggerating the results of the meetup attendees. Unless you think I'm trying to recruit people on HN to come to my meetups and meet successful founders?


I note neither your post or the one you replied to contain any quantitative data about how many profitable solo businesses there are.


I know over a dozen 1-2 person SaaS, not including my own. Some of them have hired some help now but they are still more on the "lifestyle business" side. They are in many different spaces, and founders from around the world. I am not a big networker, but this is my niche and it's big enough that I just know a slice.


I don't know any. I know a couple of people who had ideas that became bigger startups, but only 1 who was a friend rather than via networking. And I know a few people who did try the small saas or other small software based business but they all failed and now have jobs.


There’s one on the front page right now - healthchecks.io


Ok? My point wasn't that they don't exist, I was just pointing out that anecdata from one person who is deeply into a group where it's a thing has large counter points. And I thought my example worth mentioning because my group is into it but nobody amongst it has made a success of it.


Just an fyi


This is such a middlebrow dismissal. Like yeah, people are speculating based personal experience and knowledge, so what? If you have a different viewpoint or something specific you'd like to see data on call it out and engage in the discussion. Don't just be the "data or GTFO" guy because that's a super bland and pointless take.


"Oh yeah, you think you know something about entrepreneurs? Name every business."


> I host meetups for indie founders, and several attendees earn their living through solo businesses. When I go to conferences like Microconf, I meet lots more.

> I suspect this is largely sampling bias.

FTFY.


I'm not claiming that all indie founders are successful. I'm disputing the claim that almost all indie founders are struggling by saying I regularly meet indie founders who are successful. Not like driving exotic cars successful, but making a good living, in some cases with income on par with mid-to-senior FAANG dev jobs.




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