The problem with conspiracy theorists is that they believe their theories to be 99% certain instead of the most probable 1%. "I told you so" goes both ways except that conspiracy theorists never accept and admit it, there will always be another conspiracy to cover the current one.
In the overall game it simply makes much more mathematical sense to treat conspiracy theorists as crackpots since they will so often get it wrong. Even a broken clock is correct twice a day.
Negative. The problem with conspiracy theorists, or any group for that matter, is that they are so easily put into that group and then dismissed as a whole. Personally I think at the core of the matter is an enormous imbalance of importance placed on the authority or source of an argument, to the detriment of argumentative logos. Possibly some form of the genetic fallacy.
For example, you deride an entire "group" of people for believing their postulations to be 99% probable and assert that instead they are more likely 1% probable. I would say you just fucking pulled those statistics out of your ass, the very act for which you are deriding the group for! Such irony in a single sentence has been seldom found.
Sure, I agree with you that there are a plethora of quite frankly ridiculous conspiracy theories (not to be confused with the theorists themselves, who can often be just as ridiculous). That being said though, you are in fact completely wrong when you say "In the overall game it simply makes much more mathematical sense to treat conspiracy theorists as crackpots since they will so often get it wrong." and here is why.
Conspiracies are a driving factor throughout history. To ignore them in the past and in the present is to dismiss the very core their historicity. To dismiss them based on some flawed, arbitrary assertions about mathematical calculations that have no academic backing is simply daft.
Also, as I said before, there are indeed plenty of logically absurd theories... but why exactly are they absurd? One, they defy logic, but more importantly, the more absurd ones are often based on no evidence whatsoever. If you have such a difficult time sifting through the completely absurd to find the logically probable/possible in order to more finely tune your engagement, that is a deficiency on your part, and no one else.
I'm trying to think of an analogy to this... It's very much like the general reaction to homeless people. Many people have a general reaction to homeless people in which they assume they are either scammers, drug addicts, or lazy. They may have had a bad experience with a homeless person, and now seem to think almost all homeless people are not worth the time/effort. I understand how they can come to that conclusion, but the statistical facts do not support their argument, and, similarly, the statistical facts do you not support yours either, because you have essentially taken the same approach to "conspiracy theorists".
You are a conspiracy theorist. By definition, your powers of cognitive thinking are essentially retarded. This is what defines the conspiracy theorist.
Coincidence theorists, the ones that believe whatever they're told by whatever authority figure they believe in this week, are the ones with stunted cognitive abilities.
"Terrorists are the problem we must address" is no different from "Satan is trying steal your soul" or "Commies are gonna destroy our way of life" as a means of manipulating the more gullible people in a population. It's worked for centuries.
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and those are the ones you need to concentrate on."
-George Bush, repeating advice given to him by Robert Strauss
In the overall game it simply makes much more mathematical sense to treat conspiracy theorists as crackpots since they will so often get it wrong. Even a broken clock is correct twice a day.