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Your simplification ruins the example because in the real world, as in lutusp's example, managers are investing in a portfolio of stocks, not 1 in 6 with a 1/6 chance of a 600% return.

There is a reason for market theory and the saying that you can't outperform the market in the long term: everything will average out.

Lutusp's example is perfectly adequate and theoretically sound



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