It's amazing how well this strategy of hyping the extreme cases has worked for Apple in terms of getting a ton of people to develop for the iPhone. A number of my coworkers have been busily writing iPhone apps in their spare time, and they keep at it no matter how many times I point out that the market is oversaturated.
This is how many markets are created. It's why so many school age kids play sports, they want to be famous and rich like the extreme case of the pro-athlete.
It is why 37Signals writes about that guy with the cars for $1000.
It's why lotteries sell so many tickets. It's why there are so many actors and actresses in Hollywood -- most of whom wait tables and valet park cars to make ends meet. They can't do it acting...
it's why people who write blog posts about SEO can get so many viewers.
It's the lie of easy. Apple knows full well that most developers don't make money building apps. Everyone knows full well that the average school student would be better off ditching sports to study for their SAT's and ACT's. Everyone knows buying lottery tickets is a waste of money.
But yet, rural towns all over the united states spend more on football stadiums than they spend on text books...
Point is, it's a problem much bigger than the app store... what is the root of the problem and how do we solve it?
Education. In each of those cases, the "buyer" doesn't understand the rules of the game, and misjudges his odds of payoff, and what that payoff might be.
In my opinion, when it comes to the app store, the root of the problem is that people are grossly overestimating the number of dollars that are up for grabs, and because people are ashamed to admit their app isn't selling well, and because Apple only publishes vague numbers, no one has a really good way of determining how much money IS out there. That's why I've been talking about my numbers as much as possible, and I hope others will as well.
I think he’s wrong in attributing the tendency to overestimate success to the software industry or the app store alone. The author makes the perfect comparison when he compares it to the Gold Rush. No one was walking around New York circa 1850 screaming "There’s Gold in California." What did happen is a few people got rich quick and word of that spread fast (because everyone is looking for a way to get rich quick).
So whatever app store hype exists was largely inevitable. I don't recall Apple ever promising riches to developers.
There have always been people who jump on the "get rich" bandwagon. If there are more of them in the software industry it’s only because there are virtually no "cost of materials" in software development (particularly with digital delivery)
Your comment inspired me to brush up on the California Gold Rush, and this quote from Wikipedia made me chuckle:
"Sutter was dismayed by this, and wanted to keep the news quiet because he feared what would happen to his plans for an agricultural empire if there were a mass search for gold. However, rumors soon started to spread and were confirmed in March 1848 by San Francisco newspaper publisher and merchant Samuel Brannan. The most famous quote of the California Gold Rush was by Brannan; after he had hurriedly set up a store to sell gold prospecting supplies, Brannan strode through the streets of San Francisco, holding aloft a vial of gold, shouting "Gold! Gold! Gold from the American River!" With the news of gold, many families trying their luck at Californian farming decided to go for the gold, becoming some of California’s first miners."
Are they all trying to get rich, though? I write iPhone apps in my spare time, but more as an exercise for myself than anything else - have yet to release anything for money. It's a nice platform to develop for, and coming from a Mac dev background in the first place it's a natural segue for me - plus being able to take your work with you and show your friends is nice :)
That said, is the market really oversaturated? I feel that there's a lot of niche apps yet to be made. Sure, you have a million iFart's and its clones, but that's only one side of the market.
Has Apple hyped any of the developer outcomes? My impression is that they released the iPhone and were then begged from all sides for a dev kit that would take advantage of the platform. I haven't seen "here's how you'll get rich quick" numbers from Apple.
Don't be obnoxious. He was clearly stating his opinion (Apple would have to release comprehensive numbers for anyone to know for a fact how saturated the market is).
The very term connotes opinion (how much saturation is "over")
This is the most ridiculous opinion I've heard. The entire article and almost all the comments about it are based on the same assumption - yes, the market is oversaturated. So the question I think everyone should ask is this - what are the data points indicating that the market is saturated? My attempt to do that is ignored.
Being at certain positions in niche categories is not a data point. His claim that other apps are not making money is not backed up. There is practically no info on market saturation, but the entire article and all the comments are based on that assumption.
Logic involves using data to come to conclusions. What is happening here is that you all found an article you want to be true, so agree with it and make no attempt to pick apart the data behind it. This is shoddy thinking.
If I go to a fish market, there are 10 buyers and 20 men hawking fish, then I know the market is saturated. This information is not available to the author of the article.
