A lot of people criticize facebook using the "fad" concept. However, I find that hard to digest because of the investment we've all made in facebook. We've got our friends in it, and we rely on it to stay abreast of what they are doing. It has significant mindshare. It is becoming an internet within the internet, if you factor in the percentage of time spent on facebook vs total time online.
Sure, this could all change. Similar arguments have been made about eBay's hold on auctions, but nothing has dented their majority share yet.
My point is, UNLESS something big happens, facebook is going to be a major player. If you argue for a downturn, you have to explain what this big thing is and why it will happen. The burden of proof is on that side of the debate.
Facebook doesn't even have a majority share yet. Unlike eBay with auctions, there is no winner yet in the social network space unless you count MySpace. Also, most people have trouble duplicating eBay's services successfully. In contrast, for any given feature of Facebook there are probably already plenty of existing alternatives; before you even consider the primary competition like MySpace and Bebo.
Message boards, Reddits, YouTubes, Blogspots, Flickrs, MMORPG's, eHarmonies, Wikis, and of course just plain old email and the ancient concept of a home page still solve the problems that Facebook solves.
Facebook helps you find people and stay in touch. Personally, I have not had much success with it, and if you're not finding people there's really nothing to use it for.
I think that if you already have a destination and some technology of your own building a Facebook app could be an investment. You'll probably have to create something resembling an API to your own site/technology just to create an app inside Facebook. That same effort and the knowledge you gain will help you take advantage of any new hot "platforms" in the future.
I find MySpace incredibly trashy. Unfortunately, I fear Facebook is heading in that direction. Silly Facebook apps are Facebook's equivalent of MySpace users' annoying CSS styles and auto-playing media.
He doesn't claim nobody goes to myspace, it was just his way of saying it's not the "cool nightclub" any more. And also probably a Yogi Bera reference http://www.quotedb.com/quotes/1311
I think what he may be trying to point out is that perhaps the kids that are 10 - 14 years old right now may enjoy a "Club Penguin" off shoot more than "Club Facebook".
Which one will be more profitable long-term? Who can say.
The tourists still find the Buddha Bar a "must hit" spot in Paris. Even though the "globally hip" crowd hangs out more in La Republique, Le Marais, or even Monmartre now. Eschewing what they perceive to be the pretentiousness of the Champs Elysee.
He is right when he says that these things fall in and out of fashion cyclically. During the Jazz age Harlem was hot, falling out of favor in the 70s and 80s, only to enjoy an admittedly controversial renaissance in the 90s to the present. Musical instruments may have had a brisk trade in Harlem during the Jazz age, but now something a little more bland is in order if you want to make money. Think Pottery Barn. (I know . . . it saddens the heart)
It is wise to try to strike while the iron is hot rather than build a business that is dependent on its heat.
