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Black swan event in 2020: AI replaces 80% of software engineers.

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I know you're joking, but the reality is that software has been replacing huge chunks of developers' work for years, whether through optimising compilers, common libraries, CI/CD tools, web APIs, IDEs or whatever.

I've been involved in development for over quarter of a century. Back in the late 80s, we had a dev team dedicated for years building some mapping software. Their entire product could probably be put together in a couple of hours using Google Maps and a bit of JavaScript.

All this automation has happened, yet I see no slowdown in the amount of development that still happens. They can just concentrate on more bespoke, more value-adding work these days.


more bespoke, more value-adding work these days

A software version of the Jevons paradox: making software cheaper increases the demand for software.




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